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<p>Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.</p>

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Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月22日

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  • Sijia Wu,
  • Ming Luo,
  • Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau,
  • Wei Zhang,
  • Lin Wang,
  • Zhen Liu,
  • Lijie Lin,
  • Yijing Wang,
  • Erjia Ge,
  • Jianfeng Li,
  • Yuanchao Fan,
  • Yimin Chen,
  • Weilin Liao,
  • Xiaoyu Wang,
  • Xiaocong Xu,
  • Zhixin Qi,
  • Ziwei Huang,
  • Faith Ka Shun Chan,
  • David Yongqin Chen,
  • Xiaoping Liu,
  • Tao Pei

摘要

Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.