Scholarlink

Background <p>Breast cancer risk prediction approaches clinical practice. The BOADICEA risk model has been updated to consider common breast cancer risk variants, lifestyle/hormonal risk factors and mammographic density (MD).</p> Methods <p>49,494 women from the Danish Blood Donor Study were followed for up to 10 years. Modified BOADICEA risks within 5 and 10 years were calculated based on a polygenic breast cancer risk score combined with lifestyle/hormonal risk factors. MD was only known for 4608 women. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed and predicted risks. AUC and Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) were used to assess discriminative ability and sensitivities and specificities were obtained for high and low-risk groups.</p> Results <p>Within 5 and 10 years, 367 and 617 women had breast cancer. The 5-year model achieved an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI:0.78–0.81), sensitivity of 0.34 and specificity of 0.92 for all and an AUC of 0.61 (95% CI:0.58–0.65) for the 50-69-year-aged. For this age-group, the sensitivity was 0.46 in the 10-year model. 50% of women with the highest 5-year risk predictions, identified 94.8% of those with incident breast cancers.</p> Conclusion <p>The modified BOADICEA risk model provided valid risks among a large retrospective cohort of Danish women.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Breast cancer risk prediction with a modified BOADICEA model in Danish women

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月12日

查看全文
  • Sif Ingibergsdóttir Novitski,
  • Rikke Louise Jacobsen,
  • Timo Röder,
  • Peter Christoffer Holm,
  • Michael Schwinn,
  • Ilse Vejborg,
  • My Catarina von Euler-Chelpin,
  • Elsebeth Lynge,
  • Sisse R. Ostrowski,
  • Erik Sørensen,
  • Ole Birger Pedersen,
  • Christian Erikstrup,
  • Bitten Aagaard,
  • Henrik Hjalgrim,
  • Sisse Rye Ostrowski,
  • Ole Birger Pedersen,
  • Christian Erikstrup,
  • Bitten Aagaard Jensen,
  • Henrik Hjalgrim,
  • Thórunn Rafnar,
  • Kari Stefansson,
  • Henrik Ullum,
  • Karina Banasik,
  • Søren Brunak,
  • Thórunn Rafnar,
  • Kari Stefansson,
  • Nasim Mavaddat,
  • Lorenzo Ficorella,
  • Antonis C. Antoniou,
  • Henrik Ullum,
  • Karina Banasik,
  • Søren Brunak,
  • Stig Egil Bojesen

摘要

Background

Breast cancer risk prediction approaches clinical practice. The BOADICEA risk model has been updated to consider common breast cancer risk variants, lifestyle/hormonal risk factors and mammographic density (MD).

Methods

49,494 women from the Danish Blood Donor Study were followed for up to 10 years. Modified BOADICEA risks within 5 and 10 years were calculated based on a polygenic breast cancer risk score combined with lifestyle/hormonal risk factors. MD was only known for 4608 women. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed and predicted risks. AUC and Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) were used to assess discriminative ability and sensitivities and specificities were obtained for high and low-risk groups.

Results

Within 5 and 10 years, 367 and 617 women had breast cancer. The 5-year model achieved an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI:0.78–0.81), sensitivity of 0.34 and specificity of 0.92 for all and an AUC of 0.61 (95% CI:0.58–0.65) for the 50-69-year-aged. For this age-group, the sensitivity was 0.46 in the 10-year model. 50% of women with the highest 5-year risk predictions, identified 94.8% of those with incident breast cancers.

Conclusion

The modified BOADICEA risk model provided valid risks among a large retrospective cohort of Danish women.