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Background <p>Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasingly prevalent globally, making it vital to understand its patterns and contributing factors.</p> Methods <p>This study utilized Global Burden of Disease 2021 data to analyze ASD trends from 1990-2021 and project to 2030. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to investigate links between ASD and brain characteristics, metabolism, blood markers, and gut bacteria.</p> Results <p>High-income Asia Pacific countries, notably Japan (299.14 per 100,000), exhibit the highest age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates. Our findings also show that as countries advance socially and economically, reported ASD rates tend to be higher (<i>ρ</i> = 0.57). The overall global impact of ASD, measured in DALYs, is predicted to rise by nearly 59% by 2030, largely driven by population growth. The MR analysis suggested connections between ASD risk and specific factors like the size of certain brain areas (e.g., the right parahippocampal gyrus), levels of particular metabolic substances (e.g., methionine sulfone), and the presence of certain gut bacteria (e.g., Bacteroides).</p> Conclusions <p>ASD is a growing global health concern with unequal community impact. Identifying potentially modifiable factors related to brain health, metabolism, and gut bacteria offers important clues for developing better strategies for ASD prevention, early diagnosis, and support.</p> Impact <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>Significant disparities in ASD burden exist, with the highest rates in high-income Asia Pacific nations.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Global ASD-attributable disability is projected to increase by 2030, posing an urgent public health issue.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Mendelian randomization suggests potential causal links between ASD risk and neural, metabolic, and gut microbiota factors.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>This study provides updated global burden estimates and systematically explores modifiable biological factors for ASD, moving beyond prior observational research.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>This study emphasizes the need for integrated strategies in ASD prevention, early detection, and intervention to address growing global burden.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Burden and risk factors of autism spectrum disorder: global study and analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月14日

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  • Lin Lin,
  • Yunge Zhang,
  • Dongyue Zhou,
  • Qi Wang,
  • Xixi Wang,
  • Jin Sun,
  • Huanjie Li,
  • Fengyu Cong

摘要

Background

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasingly prevalent globally, making it vital to understand its patterns and contributing factors.

Methods

This study utilized Global Burden of Disease 2021 data to analyze ASD trends from 1990-2021 and project to 2030. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to investigate links between ASD and brain characteristics, metabolism, blood markers, and gut bacteria.

Results

High-income Asia Pacific countries, notably Japan (299.14 per 100,000), exhibit the highest age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates. Our findings also show that as countries advance socially and economically, reported ASD rates tend to be higher (ρ = 0.57). The overall global impact of ASD, measured in DALYs, is predicted to rise by nearly 59% by 2030, largely driven by population growth. The MR analysis suggested connections between ASD risk and specific factors like the size of certain brain areas (e.g., the right parahippocampal gyrus), levels of particular metabolic substances (e.g., methionine sulfone), and the presence of certain gut bacteria (e.g., Bacteroides).

Conclusions

ASD is a growing global health concern with unequal community impact. Identifying potentially modifiable factors related to brain health, metabolism, and gut bacteria offers important clues for developing better strategies for ASD prevention, early diagnosis, and support.

Impact

Significant disparities in ASD burden exist, with the highest rates in high-income Asia Pacific nations.

Global ASD-attributable disability is projected to increase by 2030, posing an urgent public health issue.

Mendelian randomization suggests potential causal links between ASD risk and neural, metabolic, and gut microbiota factors.

This study provides updated global burden estimates and systematically explores modifiable biological factors for ASD, moving beyond prior observational research.

This study emphasizes the need for integrated strategies in ASD prevention, early detection, and intervention to address growing global burden.