<p>Typhoon disasters pose increasing risks to coastal architectural heritage, yet existing assessments often insufficiently integrate hazard exposure, heritage vulnerability, socio-economic conditions, and management response. This study develops an integrated DPSIR–extension cloud model (ECM) framework to assess typhoon risk to coastal architectural heritage under uncertainty. Climate change is treated as a contextual and vulnerability-oriented risk framing rather than as a future projection module. The DPSIR framework structures indicators into drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses, while the ECM transforms qualitative and quantitative information into comparable risk levels by addressing fuzziness and randomness. The framework was applied to 33 architectural heritage sites in Haikou City, China. Results were generally consistent with long-term expert assessments and show that risk is shaped not only by typhoon hazard and site exposure, but also by conservation status, infrastructure, policy support, and emergency-response capacity. The framework provides a transparent tool for risk screening and conservation-resource prioritization.</p>

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An integrated DPSIR-extension cloud model framework for assessing typhoon risk to coastal architectural heritage

  • Hao Bai,
  • Lanling He,
  • Xinying Cao,
  • Mingzhu Wang,
  • Jingzhi Liu,
  • Yiqun Ma,
  • Ru Jing,
  • Lifeng Jiang

摘要

Typhoon disasters pose increasing risks to coastal architectural heritage, yet existing assessments often insufficiently integrate hazard exposure, heritage vulnerability, socio-economic conditions, and management response. This study develops an integrated DPSIR–extension cloud model (ECM) framework to assess typhoon risk to coastal architectural heritage under uncertainty. Climate change is treated as a contextual and vulnerability-oriented risk framing rather than as a future projection module. The DPSIR framework structures indicators into drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses, while the ECM transforms qualitative and quantitative information into comparable risk levels by addressing fuzziness and randomness. The framework was applied to 33 architectural heritage sites in Haikou City, China. Results were generally consistent with long-term expert assessments and show that risk is shaped not only by typhoon hazard and site exposure, but also by conservation status, infrastructure, policy support, and emergency-response capacity. The framework provides a transparent tool for risk screening and conservation-resource prioritization.