<p>Rapid urbanization in Jiangxi Province has led to a pronounced imbalance between natural ecosystem service supply (NESS) and cultural ecosystem service demand (CESD). However, few studies have aimed to quantitatively investigate the linkages between NESS and CESD, specifically the flow between them. In this study, a deep gravity model, the Transformer–SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, and a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) are employed to capture the nonlinear mechanisms between NESS and CESD flows, quantify their dynamic relationships, and predict future trends. The results indicate that CESD in Jiangxi Province exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher demand in the central and southern regions and lower demand in the northeastern areas. NESS influences CESD nonlinearly. NESS suppresses CESD at low supply levels but promotes CESD after a critical threshold of 0.5 is exceeded, which highlights the need to maintain a sufficient natural supply to support cultural ecosystem services effectively.</p>

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Nonlinear dynamics of natural and cultural ecosystem service supply and demand

  • Chang You,
  • Wenshu Liu,
  • Hongjiao Qu,
  • Chen-Chieh Feng,
  • Luo Guo

摘要

Rapid urbanization in Jiangxi Province has led to a pronounced imbalance between natural ecosystem service supply (NESS) and cultural ecosystem service demand (CESD). However, few studies have aimed to quantitatively investigate the linkages between NESS and CESD, specifically the flow between them. In this study, a deep gravity model, the Transformer–SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, and a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) are employed to capture the nonlinear mechanisms between NESS and CESD flows, quantify their dynamic relationships, and predict future trends. The results indicate that CESD in Jiangxi Province exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with higher demand in the central and southern regions and lower demand in the northeastern areas. NESS influences CESD nonlinearly. NESS suppresses CESD at low supply levels but promotes CESD after a critical threshold of 0.5 is exceeded, which highlights the need to maintain a sufficient natural supply to support cultural ecosystem services effectively.