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<p>Rapid land-use and land-cover (LULC) change in Jammu and Kashmir (J&amp;K) threatens regional water resources and ecosystem stability, yet the relative contributions of climatic versus socio-economic drivers over a six-decade period remain poorly quantified. Research objectives: This study aims to (i) document long-term LULC transitions across six categories from 1960 to 2020, (ii) identify and rank the climatic and socio-economic drivers of those transitions using partial least squares (PLS) regression, and (iii) derive evidence-based policy implications for land-use planning in J&amp;K. Methodology and data sources: Secondary time-series data on 13 climatic and socio-economic variables were compiled from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of J&amp;K, and the Forest Survey of India. Because LULC records were available only at decadal intervals, linear interpolation was employed to produce an annual 60-year dataset; this approach introduces potential autocorrelation that may inflate model fit statistics and should be interpreted with caution. PLS regression was selected over ordinary least squares because of its capacity to handle high multicollinearity among predictors and the relatively small number of observations relative to variables; leave-one-out cross-validation was used to select the number of latent components. Practical significance: Findings directly inform sustainable land governance and water-resource management for J&amp;K’s Vision 2047 planning framework. Main findings: Socio-economic drivers particularly freight and passenger traffic volumes, urbanisation rate, literacy rate, and per-capita income consistently exerted stronger associations with LULC change than climatic variables. Cross-validated <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> values ranged from 0.78 (forestland) to 0.99 (built-up area); the very high values for built-up and farmland classes may partly reflect the interpolated data structure and should be treated as indicative rather than definitive. Built-up area expanded markedly after 1990, while forest cover, grazing land, and water bodies declined. Recommendations: Integrated transport–land-use planning, rangeland governance reform, and statutory wetland protection buffers are recommended as priority policy responses, with independent validation datasets required before deploying PLS projections in formal planning tools.</p>

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Six decades of land-use and land-cover change in Jammu and Kashmir: socio-economic drivers and implications for water resources

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Ishrat F. Bhat,
  • Farhet A. Shaheen,
  • Masroor Majid,
  • Fehim J. Wani,
  • Farooq A. Lone,
  • Mushtaq A. Lone,
  • Nayar A. Kirmani,
  • Aafaq A. Rather

摘要

Rapid land-use and land-cover (LULC) change in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) threatens regional water resources and ecosystem stability, yet the relative contributions of climatic versus socio-economic drivers over a six-decade period remain poorly quantified. Research objectives: This study aims to (i) document long-term LULC transitions across six categories from 1960 to 2020, (ii) identify and rank the climatic and socio-economic drivers of those transitions using partial least squares (PLS) regression, and (iii) derive evidence-based policy implications for land-use planning in J&K. Methodology and data sources: Secondary time-series data on 13 climatic and socio-economic variables were compiled from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of J&K, and the Forest Survey of India. Because LULC records were available only at decadal intervals, linear interpolation was employed to produce an annual 60-year dataset; this approach introduces potential autocorrelation that may inflate model fit statistics and should be interpreted with caution. PLS regression was selected over ordinary least squares because of its capacity to handle high multicollinearity among predictors and the relatively small number of observations relative to variables; leave-one-out cross-validation was used to select the number of latent components. Practical significance: Findings directly inform sustainable land governance and water-resource management for J&K’s Vision 2047 planning framework. Main findings: Socio-economic drivers particularly freight and passenger traffic volumes, urbanisation rate, literacy rate, and per-capita income consistently exerted stronger associations with LULC change than climatic variables. Cross-validated R2 values ranged from 0.78 (forestland) to 0.99 (built-up area); the very high values for built-up and farmland classes may partly reflect the interpolated data structure and should be treated as indicative rather than definitive. Built-up area expanded markedly after 1990, while forest cover, grazing land, and water bodies declined. Recommendations: Integrated transport–land-use planning, rangeland governance reform, and statutory wetland protection buffers are recommended as priority policy responses, with independent validation datasets required before deploying PLS projections in formal planning tools.