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<p>As the core of deep decarbonization in energy systems, the low-carbon transition of power systems critically determines the emission reduction efficacy of electrification processes in high-energy-consuming sectors such as transportation and industry. However, existing studies lack systematic exploration of the mechanisms between internal technological adjustment risks and external economic uncertainties under a “security-economy-low-carbon” tri-objective framework. To address this gap, this paper develops a coupled model of hourly multi-objective planning and macro-level comprehensive evaluation to quantify technological risks and economic uncertainties during the transition, followed by scenario simulations evaluating different transition pathways. Key findings include: (1) Under an equally weighted evaluation framework that accounts for both macro-level socioeconomic impacts and the power system’s internal goals of security, economy, and decarbonization, the accelerated decarbonization pathway offers greater long-term sustainability benefits; (2) Although the conservative decarbonization scenario shows internal advantages in system security and cost, the accelerated decarbonization path delivers significantly greater benefits in terms of economic growth, environmental and health improvements, job creation, and inflation control, especially in environmental and health outcomes, making it the more favorable choice for advancing a low-carbon transition and broader social welfare; (3) Technological advancement helps control and reduce investment and total generation costs. Compared to the baseline scenario, the high technological progress scenario achieved a nearly 30% reduction in cumulative investment costs and a 20.2% decrease in total generation costs.</p>

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Risk-adaptive planning for power system decarbonization: quantifying internal and external trade-offs based on a dual-triangle framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Gang Lu,
  • Peng Xia,
  • Jingyun Li,
  • Haitao Chen,
  • Yanming Jin,
  • Qin Wang

摘要

As the core of deep decarbonization in energy systems, the low-carbon transition of power systems critically determines the emission reduction efficacy of electrification processes in high-energy-consuming sectors such as transportation and industry. However, existing studies lack systematic exploration of the mechanisms between internal technological adjustment risks and external economic uncertainties under a “security-economy-low-carbon” tri-objective framework. To address this gap, this paper develops a coupled model of hourly multi-objective planning and macro-level comprehensive evaluation to quantify technological risks and economic uncertainties during the transition, followed by scenario simulations evaluating different transition pathways. Key findings include: (1) Under an equally weighted evaluation framework that accounts for both macro-level socioeconomic impacts and the power system’s internal goals of security, economy, and decarbonization, the accelerated decarbonization pathway offers greater long-term sustainability benefits; (2) Although the conservative decarbonization scenario shows internal advantages in system security and cost, the accelerated decarbonization path delivers significantly greater benefits in terms of economic growth, environmental and health improvements, job creation, and inflation control, especially in environmental and health outcomes, making it the more favorable choice for advancing a low-carbon transition and broader social welfare; (3) Technological advancement helps control and reduce investment and total generation costs. Compared to the baseline scenario, the high technological progress scenario achieved a nearly 30% reduction in cumulative investment costs and a 20.2% decrease in total generation costs.