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<p>Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards worldwide. In many developing countries, fast-growing peri-urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to unregulated development, poor drainage systems, and weak planning capacity. In Nigeria, most flood studies and management efforts have focused on major cities, while peri-urban settlements, where population growth and flood exposure are increasing rapidly, have received little attention. This reduces the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction and management. Our study addresses this gap by integrating observed flood extent with modelled flood susceptibility to assess peri-urban flood risk and exposure in Suleja, Niger State. Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery was used to delineate the 2020 flood extent, while a Flood Risk Index (FRI) was developed using terrain derivatives, rainfall, land use/land cover, and hydrological factors within a multi-criteria framework. The SAR-derived flood extent was integrated with the FRI to produce an Integrated Flood Risk Map (IFRM), classified into low, moderate, and high-risk zones. Results show that the observed 2020 flood covered 6.9% of the study area, whereas the high-risk class of the IFRM, defined as the Critical Flood Risk Zone (CFRZ), covers 17.88%, indicating a substantially larger area of potential flood risk beyond observed inundation. The CFRZ was subsequently used to assess exposure, revealing a dominance of built-up areas (87.28%) and high exposure of the population (137,000 people), buildings (23,167 structures), and roads (556 km). Model validation demonstrates strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.94). The findings provide robust, actionable evidence for flood-informed peri-urban planning and risk reduction in data-constrained environments.</p><p><b>Clinical trial number:</b> Not applicable.</p>

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Peri-urban flood risk mapping and exposure analysis in Niger State, Nigeria: a geospatial assessment for monitoring and actions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Joseph James Umar,
  • Ademola Andrew Adenle,
  • Oluwatosin Femi Asonibare,
  • Nelson Onyebuchi Nwobi

摘要

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards worldwide. In many developing countries, fast-growing peri-urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to unregulated development, poor drainage systems, and weak planning capacity. In Nigeria, most flood studies and management efforts have focused on major cities, while peri-urban settlements, where population growth and flood exposure are increasing rapidly, have received little attention. This reduces the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction and management. Our study addresses this gap by integrating observed flood extent with modelled flood susceptibility to assess peri-urban flood risk and exposure in Suleja, Niger State. Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery was used to delineate the 2020 flood extent, while a Flood Risk Index (FRI) was developed using terrain derivatives, rainfall, land use/land cover, and hydrological factors within a multi-criteria framework. The SAR-derived flood extent was integrated with the FRI to produce an Integrated Flood Risk Map (IFRM), classified into low, moderate, and high-risk zones. Results show that the observed 2020 flood covered 6.9% of the study area, whereas the high-risk class of the IFRM, defined as the Critical Flood Risk Zone (CFRZ), covers 17.88%, indicating a substantially larger area of potential flood risk beyond observed inundation. The CFRZ was subsequently used to assess exposure, revealing a dominance of built-up areas (87.28%) and high exposure of the population (137,000 people), buildings (23,167 structures), and roads (556 km). Model validation demonstrates strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.94). The findings provide robust, actionable evidence for flood-informed peri-urban planning and risk reduction in data-constrained environments.

Clinical trial number: Not applicable.