Scholarlink

<p>The conservation of threatened medicinal plants in the Indian Himalayan Region is increasingly challenged by climate change, habitat degradation, and unsustainable harvesting, highlighting the need for spatially explicit, forward-looking conservation strategies. In this study, we modelled and mapped habitat suitability and cultivation potential for seventeen vulnerable medicinal plant species in the alpine and subalpine regions of Uttarakhand, western Himalaya, using an integrated stacked species distribution modelling (SSDM) framework. Species occurrence data were compiled from field surveys, herbaria, literature, online databases, cleaned (<i>n</i> = 471) and modelled against high-resolution bioclimatic variables. Ensemble species distribution models were developed, and subsequently stacked for Category-I (highly vulnerable) and Category-II (vulnerable) species groups. Model performance was robust, with mean AUC values of 0.90 for Category-I and 0.88 for Category-II species. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) were the dominant predictors for both species groups. Current suitability maps indicated that only 21.8% of climatically suitable habitat for Category-I species and 13.0% for Category-II species fell within high-suitability classes, largely between 2500 and 4500&#xa0;m a.s.l. Under future climate projections, suitable habitat declined by 31.3% (Category-I) and 25.9% (Category-II) by 2040 under SSP126, followed by partial recovery by 2080, whereas persistent losses of 67.7% and 64.6%, respectively, were projected under SSP245. To translate climatic suitability into actionable cultivation zones, additional feasibility filters—including elevation constraints, land-use/land-cover, and road proximity—were applied, followed by grid-based spatial aggregation. After applying elevation, land-use, and road-disturbance filters, only 23.5% (~ 6495 km<sup>2</sup>) of Category-I and 19.2% (~ 6140 km<sup>2</sup>) of Category-II suitable habitats remained feasible for cultivation. High- and medium-feasibility zones were concentrated in Chamoli, Uttarkashi, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar districts. These results demonstrate that integrating SSDMs with feasibility constraints provides actionable guidance for multi-species cultivation, community-based conservation, and climate-resilient management of threatened Himalayan medicinal plants.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Modelling and mapping habitat suitability for cultivation potential of threatened medicinal plants of Uttarakhand, west Himalaya, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

查看全文
  • Neha Thapliyal,
  • Rajendra Singh Rawat,
  • K. Chandra Sekar

摘要

The conservation of threatened medicinal plants in the Indian Himalayan Region is increasingly challenged by climate change, habitat degradation, and unsustainable harvesting, highlighting the need for spatially explicit, forward-looking conservation strategies. In this study, we modelled and mapped habitat suitability and cultivation potential for seventeen vulnerable medicinal plant species in the alpine and subalpine regions of Uttarakhand, western Himalaya, using an integrated stacked species distribution modelling (SSDM) framework. Species occurrence data were compiled from field surveys, herbaria, literature, online databases, cleaned (n = 471) and modelled against high-resolution bioclimatic variables. Ensemble species distribution models were developed, and subsequently stacked for Category-I (highly vulnerable) and Category-II (vulnerable) species groups. Model performance was robust, with mean AUC values of 0.90 for Category-I and 0.88 for Category-II species. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19) and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) were the dominant predictors for both species groups. Current suitability maps indicated that only 21.8% of climatically suitable habitat for Category-I species and 13.0% for Category-II species fell within high-suitability classes, largely between 2500 and 4500 m a.s.l. Under future climate projections, suitable habitat declined by 31.3% (Category-I) and 25.9% (Category-II) by 2040 under SSP126, followed by partial recovery by 2080, whereas persistent losses of 67.7% and 64.6%, respectively, were projected under SSP245. To translate climatic suitability into actionable cultivation zones, additional feasibility filters—including elevation constraints, land-use/land-cover, and road proximity—were applied, followed by grid-based spatial aggregation. After applying elevation, land-use, and road-disturbance filters, only 23.5% (~ 6495 km2) of Category-I and 19.2% (~ 6140 km2) of Category-II suitable habitats remained feasible for cultivation. High- and medium-feasibility zones were concentrated in Chamoli, Uttarkashi, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar districts. These results demonstrate that integrating SSDMs with feasibility constraints provides actionable guidance for multi-species cultivation, community-based conservation, and climate-resilient management of threatened Himalayan medicinal plants.