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<p>Our study aimed to understand the distribution of <i>Frullania</i> across different climatic scenarios. To this end, we built a database comprising 39 <i>Frullania</i> species. For the analysis of current and future distributions, we selected bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation available on the digital platform WorldClim and employed three algorithms. Our projections revealed that suitable areas for <i>Frullania</i> in Brazil are expected to undergo significant contractions—up to 70% loss in some cases—particularly affecting subgenera with more restricted distributions. Despite the wide distribution and diversity of some subgenera, a large portion of the species are classified as endangered and may potentially have their status changed to higher-risk categories.</p>

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Climate projections: The places in Brazil where Frullania can survive are getting smaller

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Eliene Lima,
  • Luciano J. S. Anjos,
  • Anna Luiza Ilkiu-Borges

摘要

Our study aimed to understand the distribution of Frullania across different climatic scenarios. To this end, we built a database comprising 39 Frullania species. For the analysis of current and future distributions, we selected bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation available on the digital platform WorldClim and employed three algorithms. Our projections revealed that suitable areas for Frullania in Brazil are expected to undergo significant contractions—up to 70% loss in some cases—particularly affecting subgenera with more restricted distributions. Despite the wide distribution and diversity of some subgenera, a large portion of the species are classified as endangered and may potentially have their status changed to higher-risk categories.