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<p>Rapid land use/land cover (LULC) change and forest fragmentation have become major environmental challenges in rapidly urbanizing regions of Ethiopia, particularly in Naqamte City, where urban expansion and agricultural pressure are intensifying. This study analyzed multi-temporal LULC dynamics, quantified forest fragmentation, and identified the major drivers of forest fragmentation in Naqamte City from 1991 to 2025 using machine learning techniques and landscape metrics. Landsat images from 1991, 2011, and 2025 were classified into five LULC classes (built-up, cropland, forest, grassland, and waterbody) using SVM, with accuracy assessed via confusion matrices, overall accuracy, and Kappa. LULC changes were analyzed through post-classification comparison. Forest fragmentation was quantified using FRAGSTATS 4.2 by analyzing patch, edge, perforated, and core forest categories. Socio-economic drivers were identified through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and spatial overlay analysis. SVM, offer improved performance due to their ability to handle complex spectral signatures and high-dimensional feature spaces [<CitationRef CitationID="CR19">18</CitationRef>, <CitationRef CitationID="CR21">20</CitationRef>]. Classified maps showed high accuracy (81.3–94.7% overall,Kappa 0.82–0.93), confirming SVM reliability. Built-up areas rose from 9.2 to 51.1%, while forest cover decreased from 25.8% to 6.3% between 1991 and 2025 indicating rapid urban growth. Forest fragmentation intensified considerably, with core forest areas decreasing from 165&#xa0;ha in 1991 to 61&#xa0;ha in 2011 and completely disappearing by 2025, signifying the total loss of interior forest habitat. Patch forests became the dominant forest structure, showing that remaining forest resources are highly fragmented, isolated, and ecologically degraded. Urban expansion, agricultural encroachment, fuelwood and charcoal production, timber extraction, and overgrazing were identified as the main proximate drivers of forest fragmentation, reinforced by underlying drivers such as rapid population growth, poverty, insecure land tenure, weak governance, and limited environmental awareness. Naqamte City has shifted to a highly urbanized, fragmented landscape where forest fragmentation outweighs forest loss, requiring integrated land-use planning, strong governance, alternative energy, forest restoration, and community-based management programs.</p>

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Forest fragmentation and land use land cover change analysis in Naqamte City Western Ethiopia using machine learning and landscape metrics

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Milkessa Dangia Nagasa,
  • Birhanu Tadese Edosa

摘要

Rapid land use/land cover (LULC) change and forest fragmentation have become major environmental challenges in rapidly urbanizing regions of Ethiopia, particularly in Naqamte City, where urban expansion and agricultural pressure are intensifying. This study analyzed multi-temporal LULC dynamics, quantified forest fragmentation, and identified the major drivers of forest fragmentation in Naqamte City from 1991 to 2025 using machine learning techniques and landscape metrics. Landsat images from 1991, 2011, and 2025 were classified into five LULC classes (built-up, cropland, forest, grassland, and waterbody) using SVM, with accuracy assessed via confusion matrices, overall accuracy, and Kappa. LULC changes were analyzed through post-classification comparison. Forest fragmentation was quantified using FRAGSTATS 4.2 by analyzing patch, edge, perforated, and core forest categories. Socio-economic drivers were identified through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and spatial overlay analysis. SVM, offer improved performance due to their ability to handle complex spectral signatures and high-dimensional feature spaces [18, 20]. Classified maps showed high accuracy (81.3–94.7% overall,Kappa 0.82–0.93), confirming SVM reliability. Built-up areas rose from 9.2 to 51.1%, while forest cover decreased from 25.8% to 6.3% between 1991 and 2025 indicating rapid urban growth. Forest fragmentation intensified considerably, with core forest areas decreasing from 165 ha in 1991 to 61 ha in 2011 and completely disappearing by 2025, signifying the total loss of interior forest habitat. Patch forests became the dominant forest structure, showing that remaining forest resources are highly fragmented, isolated, and ecologically degraded. Urban expansion, agricultural encroachment, fuelwood and charcoal production, timber extraction, and overgrazing were identified as the main proximate drivers of forest fragmentation, reinforced by underlying drivers such as rapid population growth, poverty, insecure land tenure, weak governance, and limited environmental awareness. Naqamte City has shifted to a highly urbanized, fragmented landscape where forest fragmentation outweighs forest loss, requiring integrated land-use planning, strong governance, alternative energy, forest restoration, and community-based management programs.