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<p><i>Coptis teeta</i>, commonly known as Mishmi teeta, a valuable medicinal plant endemic to the Eastern Himalayas. It is primarily found in the subtropical and temperate forests of Arunachal Pradesh, particularly in the Mishmi Hills region. Owing to its extremely small populations, restricted distribution, and limited natural regeneration, <i>C. teeta</i> has been categorized as a threatened species on the IUCN Red List. This study aims to identify key environmental factors influencing the species’ distribution and to predict potential suitable habitats under different climatic scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. An ensemble of four SDMs- Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is used in this study. Sixteen occurrence points and fifteen environmental variables, including bioclimatic, topographical, and soil factors, were used to predict the potential suitable habitat of <i>Coptis teeta</i> under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model. The evaluation of the ensemble model showed very good performance based on AUC (0.91) and TSS (0.73). The results revealed that under the current climatic scenario, approximately 1468.04&#xa0;km² (1.75% of the total area) was identified as a highly suitable habitat. However, projections into the future suggest a considerable decrease in highly suitable habitat with an expected reduction of more than 38.80% by the SSP585 (2041–2060) scenario. The top three key variables which include, BIO14, Nitro (0–5) cm, and BIO5, emerged as dominant variables with a total contribution rate of 34.91% to the current distribution. These results suggest that <i>C. teeta</i> is highly sensitive to habitat and climate changes, highlighting the urgent need for conservation actions to protect grasslands and mitigate climate impacts to ensure the species survival in the region.</p>

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Predicted contraction of climatically suitable habitat for the endangered medicinal plant Coptis teeta in the Eastern Himalaya

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Bikash Kalita,
  • Anubhav Bhuyan,
  • Manabendra Nath,
  • Kuladip Sarma,
  • Saurov Jyoti Roy,
  • Kishor Deka,
  • Jyotishman Deka,
  • Raj Kumar Pegu,
  • Bhaben Tanti

摘要

Coptis teeta, commonly known as Mishmi teeta, a valuable medicinal plant endemic to the Eastern Himalayas. It is primarily found in the subtropical and temperate forests of Arunachal Pradesh, particularly in the Mishmi Hills region. Owing to its extremely small populations, restricted distribution, and limited natural regeneration, C. teeta has been categorized as a threatened species on the IUCN Red List. This study aims to identify key environmental factors influencing the species’ distribution and to predict potential suitable habitats under different climatic scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. An ensemble of four SDMs- Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is used in this study. Sixteen occurrence points and fifteen environmental variables, including bioclimatic, topographical, and soil factors, were used to predict the potential suitable habitat of Coptis teeta under current and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model. The evaluation of the ensemble model showed very good performance based on AUC (0.91) and TSS (0.73). The results revealed that under the current climatic scenario, approximately 1468.04 km² (1.75% of the total area) was identified as a highly suitable habitat. However, projections into the future suggest a considerable decrease in highly suitable habitat with an expected reduction of more than 38.80% by the SSP585 (2041–2060) scenario. The top three key variables which include, BIO14, Nitro (0–5) cm, and BIO5, emerged as dominant variables with a total contribution rate of 34.91% to the current distribution. These results suggest that C. teeta is highly sensitive to habitat and climate changes, highlighting the urgent need for conservation actions to protect grasslands and mitigate climate impacts to ensure the species survival in the region.