Climate change threatens the resilience of Bertholletia excelsa extractivism in the Southern Brazilian Amazon
摘要
Climate change poses a threat to the distribution of key species of Amazonian socio-biodiversity, such as Bertholletia excelsa (Brazil nut). This study aimed to assess the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of B. excelsa in the southern Brazilian Amazon and to analyse the resilience of the extractivism practiced by the “Association of Brazil Nut Collectors of the Juruena Settlement Project” (ACCPAJ in portuguese) in the face of these changes. To this end, potential species distribution models (SDMs) were developed and resilience indicators applied, based on semi-structured interviews with social actors involved in extractivism. The results of the SDMs reveal a declining trend in environmental suitability for Bertholletia excelsa over the coming decades in the study region. These findings align with the perceptions of local extractivists, who have observed the effects of climate change, including rising temperatures and more prolonged drought periods. Additionally, issues such as internal conflicts and weaknesses in project management were identified as key factors exacerbating the vulnerability of the extractive activity. The study concludes that the resilience of B. excelsa extractivism hinges on a set of integrated strategies—ranging from organisational strengthening and adaptive management practices to the implementation of public policies aimed at mitigating climate impacts—thus safeguarding both biodiversity and the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities.