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Purpose <p>To investigate myopia incidence over the past 8 years in senior high schools in China and predict its 5-year trend.</p> Methods <p>This study was a multiregional 8-year retrospective study. A total of 5440 male students aged 17–19 years (mean 18.3 ± 0.5 years) were included nationwide from September 2018 to September 2025. Each student was tested for visual acuity and cycloplegic refraction and followed up each year for 3 years. Historical data on refraction and myopia prevalence from 2018 to 2025 were analysed based on a Gaussian Process Regression model to predict the myopia incidence over the next 5 years (2026–2030).</p> Results <p>From 2018 to 2025, myopia incidence in the 5440 students over the past 8 years was 24.51%. Incidence reached a peak of 32.87% in 2020, with a low of 13.20% in 2024. In the −0.25 to +0.50 D baseline refraction subgroup, the 3-year myopia incidence peaked at 31.6%. The incidence in the first grade of senior high school was 1.36% (74/5440), rising to 4.49% (236/5253) and 19.74% (969/4908) in the second and third grades, respectively. Predictions show myopia incidence dropping from 19.23% in 2026 to 16.06% by 2030.</p> Conclusion <p>The incidence rate of myopia among students in senior high school fluctuated slightly between 2018 and 2025, but is projected to decline over the next 5 years. Students with spherical equivalent refractions of &lt;+0.50 D require attention regarding myopia prevention.</p>

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Trend of Myopia Incidence Among Adolescents (2018–2025) in Senior High School: An 8-Year Retrospective Study in Multi-Regions of China, With Projections to 2030

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Siyuan Chen,
  • Lu Yao,
  • Yuchai Wan,
  • Chen Zhao,
  • Qi Qi,
  • Xuefeng Wang,
  • Yan Tang,
  • Ding Ding,
  • Zhuo Chen,
  • Heyao Liu,
  • Zhikang Zou,
  • Yong Liu,
  • Linsong Qi

摘要

Purpose

To investigate myopia incidence over the past 8 years in senior high schools in China and predict its 5-year trend.

Methods

This study was a multiregional 8-year retrospective study. A total of 5440 male students aged 17–19 years (mean 18.3 ± 0.5 years) were included nationwide from September 2018 to September 2025. Each student was tested for visual acuity and cycloplegic refraction and followed up each year for 3 years. Historical data on refraction and myopia prevalence from 2018 to 2025 were analysed based on a Gaussian Process Regression model to predict the myopia incidence over the next 5 years (2026–2030).

Results

From 2018 to 2025, myopia incidence in the 5440 students over the past 8 years was 24.51%. Incidence reached a peak of 32.87% in 2020, with a low of 13.20% in 2024. In the −0.25 to +0.50 D baseline refraction subgroup, the 3-year myopia incidence peaked at 31.6%. The incidence in the first grade of senior high school was 1.36% (74/5440), rising to 4.49% (236/5253) and 19.74% (969/4908) in the second and third grades, respectively. Predictions show myopia incidence dropping from 19.23% in 2026 to 16.06% by 2030.

Conclusion

The incidence rate of myopia among students in senior high school fluctuated slightly between 2018 and 2025, but is projected to decline over the next 5 years. Students with spherical equivalent refractions of <+0.50 D require attention regarding myopia prevention.