Origins of Remote and Local Moisture Leading to the Extraordinary Rainfall of Late August 2019 in Northern Kyushu, Japan
摘要
To clarify the source differences in moisture triggering heavy rainfall before and after mid-summer, we examined an extreme event in northern Kyushu in late August 2019. A regional spectral model incorporated with isotopic tracers is used in this study. The remote moisture of Asian monsoon (AM) and of North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) origin occupy 65.1% and 16.1% of the total, respectively. These characteristics are moderately similar to those of heavy rainfall events during the Baiu season, while substantial differences are more AM moisture and less NPSH moisture. Two tropical cyclones (TCs) modulate the relative contribution of the remote moisture: one facilitates AM moisture intrusion into East Asia; conversely, the other interrupts NPSH moisture penetration to a quasi-stationary front around northern Kyushu. The contribution of local moisture, reaching 15.3% of the total, is larger than that of Baiu rainfall events. The increased contribution of local moisture may be attributed to the rise of sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of Kyushu Island. Not only the precise TC prediction related to the remote moisture but also the quantitative estimation of local moisture is necessary for improving the prediction of heavy rainfall that occurs, especially after mid-summer.