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<p>Patterns of mortality and recruitment of overstory species may predict forest carbon dynamics, but this is rarely tested. In northern Arizona, forest inventory revealed a mean decline of ~ 68% of overstory aspen from 2003–2018. Regeneration was present but recruitment to the overstory was rare, occurring in only 6% of plots, and most regeneration (62%) had evidence of herbivore browse damage. Complete loss of overstory aspen occurred in 37% of plots. Cumulative mortality was negatively associated with higher elevations and larger tree sizes and positively associated with fungal disease frequency. Aspen mortality strongly affected net primary productivity (NPP) and loss of overstory aspen corresponded to reduced NPP; this trend was the same for sites internal and external to a wildfire boundary. We conclude that regional observations of aspen mortality derive from combined physiographic and biotic factors, and aspen mortality impacts forest carbon sequestration with potential consequences for carbon management goals.&#xa0;</p>

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Mortality of a Foundation Tree Species Alters Forest Carbon Trajectories: A Long-Term Case Study of Aspen Decline in Northern Arizona

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月19日

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  • Thomas S. Davis,
  • Nicholas Wilhelmi,
  • Arjan J. Meddens,
  • Mary Lou Fairweather

摘要

Patterns of mortality and recruitment of overstory species may predict forest carbon dynamics, but this is rarely tested. In northern Arizona, forest inventory revealed a mean decline of ~ 68% of overstory aspen from 2003–2018. Regeneration was present but recruitment to the overstory was rare, occurring in only 6% of plots, and most regeneration (62%) had evidence of herbivore browse damage. Complete loss of overstory aspen occurred in 37% of plots. Cumulative mortality was negatively associated with higher elevations and larger tree sizes and positively associated with fungal disease frequency. Aspen mortality strongly affected net primary productivity (NPP) and loss of overstory aspen corresponded to reduced NPP; this trend was the same for sites internal and external to a wildfire boundary. We conclude that regional observations of aspen mortality derive from combined physiographic and biotic factors, and aspen mortality impacts forest carbon sequestration with potential consequences for carbon management goals.