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<p>The endangered eastern North American tree species, butternut (<i>Juglans cinerea</i> L.), has been negatively impacted by an introduced pathogen and a lack of sunlight in hardwood forests, hindering conservation efforts. We developed an ensemble model to project suitable habitat for butternut across its native range under contrasting emissions scenarios. Our model integrated six algorithms weighted by predictive performance of environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, topography) on butternut data derived from GBIF, TreeSnap, and iNaturalist. Across four future periods through the end of the twenty-first century, the ensemble model projected habitat gains, losses, or stability depending on geographic location and climate model, highlighting variability and uncertainty. Precipitation seasonality and slope aspect emerged as highly correlative variables for projected distribution. Our results underscore the need for more research into the interactions between butternut canker and climate, and adaptive and location-specific conservation strategies attuned to ecological intricacies to ensure biodiversity amid global change.</p>

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Habitat Suitability Modeling: A Tool for Restoring Butternut, Juglans cinerea L., in the Eastern United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月13日

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  • Segun M. Adeyemo,
  • Joshua J. Granger,
  • Ashley N. Schulz,
  • Krishna P. Poudel,
  • Yun Yang,
  • Qian Zhou

摘要

The endangered eastern North American tree species, butternut (Juglans cinerea L.), has been negatively impacted by an introduced pathogen and a lack of sunlight in hardwood forests, hindering conservation efforts. We developed an ensemble model to project suitable habitat for butternut across its native range under contrasting emissions scenarios. Our model integrated six algorithms weighted by predictive performance of environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, topography) on butternut data derived from GBIF, TreeSnap, and iNaturalist. Across four future periods through the end of the twenty-first century, the ensemble model projected habitat gains, losses, or stability depending on geographic location and climate model, highlighting variability and uncertainty. Precipitation seasonality and slope aspect emerged as highly correlative variables for projected distribution. Our results underscore the need for more research into the interactions between butternut canker and climate, and adaptive and location-specific conservation strategies attuned to ecological intricacies to ensure biodiversity amid global change.