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<p>Many landowners in the US South planted loblolly pine at a time of rising stumpage prices as the US forest economy shifted to the South. Subsequent events restructured the region’s forest industry, and persistently lower and flat timber prices have many concerned for their forest investment. Southern pine timber product price trends and volatilities over periods of 25 to 40&#xa0;years were incorporated into loblolly pine plantation discounted cash flow analyses at real discount rates [DR] of 4.00% to 6.00% to learn how this price stochastic environment has affected landowner income and optimal timber rotation length. All products’ price trends were negative and exceeded their corresponding volatilities, which led to higher effective discount rates. Rotation lengths decreased by as many as seven years depending on site index (18.3&#xa0;m, 21.3&#xa0;m, 24.4&#xa0;m at age 25 [SI<sub>25</sub>]) and planting density (1122, 1280, 1495 trees per hectare [TPH]) versus the traditional Faustmann model’s predictions. Sign changes occurred between price deterministic land expectation value (LEV) at 5% discount and price stochastic LEV on SI<sub>25</sub> 18.3&#xa0;m sites planted at 1280 and 1495 TPH. The same effect happened at 6% discount for SI<sub>25</sub> 21.3&#xa0;m sites planted at 1495 TPH. Marginal analysis indicated adhering to a price deterministic optimal rotation in a price stochastic setting would produce negative net income on SI<sub>25</sub> 18.3&#xa0;m sites planted at 1122 seedlings per hectare. Positive price stochastic LEVs resulted for 21of 27 SI-TPH-DR combinations and 24 of 27 price deterministic LEVs.</p>

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Impact of Timber Price Trends and Volatility on Optimal Rotation Age of Loblolly Pine Plantations in the US South

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Samjhana Panthi,
  • T. Eric McConnell,
  • Changyou Sun,
  • Krishna Poudel

摘要

Many landowners in the US South planted loblolly pine at a time of rising stumpage prices as the US forest economy shifted to the South. Subsequent events restructured the region’s forest industry, and persistently lower and flat timber prices have many concerned for their forest investment. Southern pine timber product price trends and volatilities over periods of 25 to 40 years were incorporated into loblolly pine plantation discounted cash flow analyses at real discount rates [DR] of 4.00% to 6.00% to learn how this price stochastic environment has affected landowner income and optimal timber rotation length. All products’ price trends were negative and exceeded their corresponding volatilities, which led to higher effective discount rates. Rotation lengths decreased by as many as seven years depending on site index (18.3 m, 21.3 m, 24.4 m at age 25 [SI25]) and planting density (1122, 1280, 1495 trees per hectare [TPH]) versus the traditional Faustmann model’s predictions. Sign changes occurred between price deterministic land expectation value (LEV) at 5% discount and price stochastic LEV on SI25 18.3 m sites planted at 1280 and 1495 TPH. The same effect happened at 6% discount for SI25 21.3 m sites planted at 1495 TPH. Marginal analysis indicated adhering to a price deterministic optimal rotation in a price stochastic setting would produce negative net income on SI25 18.3 m sites planted at 1122 seedlings per hectare. Positive price stochastic LEVs resulted for 21of 27 SI-TPH-DR combinations and 24 of 27 price deterministic LEVs.