Scholarlink

<p>Historically, the prices of softwood timber and lumber have shown strong correlations within their supply chain. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, the gap between these prices has widened, a trend further exacerbated during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines the impact of various economic shocks on this expanding price gap from 1999 to 2023. Using a Markov Switching Autoregressive model and incorporating variables such as housing starts, lumber futures, mortgage rates, Canadian softwood lumber export, and standing inventory, we identify periods of divergence and stability in the difference between timber and lumber prices in the southern United States. Our analysis pinpoints significant shifts in the price gap, particularly around 2015/16 and 2019–2022, with minor fluctuations also noted between 2000 and 2004. The findings indicate that external shocks, especially changes in the housing markets, can significantly drive price divergences, however the impact varies with economic conditions highlighting a dynamic market response. Findings are useful for market participants and policymakers to understand the market conditions and factors explaining the price divergence between lumber and timber prices in the southern United States.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Examining divergence in softwood lumber and timber prices in the southern United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月6日

查看全文
  • Sabhyata Lamichhane,
  • Rajan Parajuli,
  • Jesse D. Henderson,
  • Bruno Kanieski da Silva,
  • Shaun M. Tanger

摘要

Historically, the prices of softwood timber and lumber have shown strong correlations within their supply chain. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, the gap between these prices has widened, a trend further exacerbated during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines the impact of various economic shocks on this expanding price gap from 1999 to 2023. Using a Markov Switching Autoregressive model and incorporating variables such as housing starts, lumber futures, mortgage rates, Canadian softwood lumber export, and standing inventory, we identify periods of divergence and stability in the difference between timber and lumber prices in the southern United States. Our analysis pinpoints significant shifts in the price gap, particularly around 2015/16 and 2019–2022, with minor fluctuations also noted between 2000 and 2004. The findings indicate that external shocks, especially changes in the housing markets, can significantly drive price divergences, however the impact varies with economic conditions highlighting a dynamic market response. Findings are useful for market participants and policymakers to understand the market conditions and factors explaining the price divergence between lumber and timber prices in the southern United States.