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<p>Northern bobwhite (<i>Colinus virginianus</i>) populations have declined over recent decades, due in large part to habitat loss. This decline is concerning as the northern bobwhite is a popular game bird and an umbrella species for grassland-shrublands. We sought to forecast northern bobwhite declines as urbanization increased. We determined northern bobwhite abundance using the North American Breeding Bird Survey (1970–2014), and human population growth using the Integrated Climate and Land-use Scenarios’ estimated percentage of impervious surface. We established five-year rolling averages for 1972–2012) due to the high annual variation in bobwhite populations. We developed both a linear model with one break point, and a natural logarithmic relationship between impervious surface and northern bobwhite abundance. We used these relationships to project future impacts to northern bobwhite abundance into 2050, both across the study area and in urban areas. Northern bobwhite populations decreased from 45.73 ± 1.18 birds/route (1972) to 11.55 ± 0.64 birds/route (2012); a 76.8% decline over a 42-year period, with a breakpoint when impervious surface cover was 0.77% (r² = 0.0617; adjusted r² = 0.05911). As the urban sprawl from major cities (Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, etc.) continues to grow, northern bobwhite populations are projected to decline through 2050. Thus, while small-scale habitat management to support local quail populations is important, quail managers will need to consider the large-scale drivers of northern bobwhite decline, including human population growth and habitat loss, as they manage quail populations in the future.</p>

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The future of northern bobwhites and urbanization in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Katherine S. Miller,
  • Atiye Z. Okay,
  • Leonard A. Brennan,
  • X. Ben Wu,
  • Markus J. Peterson,
  • Heather Hannusch,
  • Fidel Hernández,
  • Eric D. Grahmann,
  • Humberto L. Perotto-Baldivieso

摘要

Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations have declined over recent decades, due in large part to habitat loss. This decline is concerning as the northern bobwhite is a popular game bird and an umbrella species for grassland-shrublands. We sought to forecast northern bobwhite declines as urbanization increased. We determined northern bobwhite abundance using the North American Breeding Bird Survey (1970–2014), and human population growth using the Integrated Climate and Land-use Scenarios’ estimated percentage of impervious surface. We established five-year rolling averages for 1972–2012) due to the high annual variation in bobwhite populations. We developed both a linear model with one break point, and a natural logarithmic relationship between impervious surface and northern bobwhite abundance. We used these relationships to project future impacts to northern bobwhite abundance into 2050, both across the study area and in urban areas. Northern bobwhite populations decreased from 45.73 ± 1.18 birds/route (1972) to 11.55 ± 0.64 birds/route (2012); a 76.8% decline over a 42-year period, with a breakpoint when impervious surface cover was 0.77% (r² = 0.0617; adjusted r² = 0.05911). As the urban sprawl from major cities (Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, etc.) continues to grow, northern bobwhite populations are projected to decline through 2050. Thus, while small-scale habitat management to support local quail populations is important, quail managers will need to consider the large-scale drivers of northern bobwhite decline, including human population growth and habitat loss, as they manage quail populations in the future.