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<p>Rapid urbanization fundamentally changes land use, leading to cities warmer temperatures, or the urban heat island (UHI) effect, and to broader climate change effects. The current research explores the effect that urban expansion in Noida, city in Northern India, has exerted on surface temperature over the years. Using multitemporal Landsat imagery from 2001 to 2021, we monitored changes in land use and identified how changes led to rising LST using radiative transfer equations and spectral indices. The findings clearly show massive expansion within built-up regions from 38% (60.46&#xa0;km²) to 58% (93.64&#xa0;km²), while agriculture shows a decline from 47% (75.84&#xa0;km²) to 12% (19.18&#xa0;km²) but planned vegetation is increased from 6% (10.01&#xa0;km²) to 20% (31.46&#xa0;km²) between 2001 and 2021. Mean LST increased from 29.99&#xa0;°C to 38.28&#xa0;°C with 84.34% of the area reaching 30–35&#xa0;°C. We additionally applied an integrated Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) technique using multiple driver maps, including proximity to roads, existing built-up areas, slope, and others, to predict urban expansion and LST change up to 2031 predict built up area to reach 62% (99.18&#xa0;km²) and agricultural area further dropped to 8% (12.58&#xa0;km²). And ANN model further predicts 46.05% area having temperature 35–40&#xa0;°C. the study emphasise that Noida’s planned development has improved organised vegetation cover but has not prevented thermal intensification therefore effective urban planning must focus not only on increasing green areas but also on regulating spatial distribution of built-up land to maintain a balanced urban thermal environment.</p>

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Assessing and predicting the impact of urban expansion on land surface temperature and urban heat island intensity in Noida

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Huma Aftab,
  • Nishi Kumari,
  • Rashid Aziz Faridi

摘要

Rapid urbanization fundamentally changes land use, leading to cities warmer temperatures, or the urban heat island (UHI) effect, and to broader climate change effects. The current research explores the effect that urban expansion in Noida, city in Northern India, has exerted on surface temperature over the years. Using multitemporal Landsat imagery from 2001 to 2021, we monitored changes in land use and identified how changes led to rising LST using radiative transfer equations and spectral indices. The findings clearly show massive expansion within built-up regions from 38% (60.46 km²) to 58% (93.64 km²), while agriculture shows a decline from 47% (75.84 km²) to 12% (19.18 km²) but planned vegetation is increased from 6% (10.01 km²) to 20% (31.46 km²) between 2001 and 2021. Mean LST increased from 29.99 °C to 38.28 °C with 84.34% of the area reaching 30–35 °C. We additionally applied an integrated Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) technique using multiple driver maps, including proximity to roads, existing built-up areas, slope, and others, to predict urban expansion and LST change up to 2031 predict built up area to reach 62% (99.18 km²) and agricultural area further dropped to 8% (12.58 km²). And ANN model further predicts 46.05% area having temperature 35–40 °C. the study emphasise that Noida’s planned development has improved organised vegetation cover but has not prevented thermal intensification therefore effective urban planning must focus not only on increasing green areas but also on regulating spatial distribution of built-up land to maintain a balanced urban thermal environment.