Scholarlink

<p>Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, flooding, and seasonal rainfall disruption, placing coastal cities at growing risk of multisectoral impacts. This study assesses future climate risks and sectoral vulnerabilities in a low-lying urban setting using daily temperature and rainfall data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), and downscaled projections from ten GCM-RCM combinations using quantile–quantile transformation. The projections, analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, identify significant warming trends and heightened rainfall variability through 2100. These trends were evaluated alongside a qualitative vulnerability assessment, based on the IPCC AR5 framework, to explore how projected climate hazards affect exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across sectors. Sectoral impacts were derived by linking projected stressors—such as extreme heat and rainfall shifts—to functional vulnerabilities in agriculture, fisheries, water systems, infrastructure, and health. Findings show that agriculture in particular, practiced primarily in peri-urban zones within Cape Coast, is highly susceptible to crop failure, fishery declines, and water scarcity. Informal economic sectors—such as food trading and small-scale manufacturing—are also at risk due to infrastructure damage and cascading effects on income, loans, and insurance systems. Health threats are expected to rise due to increased disease vectors, heat stress, and sanitation breakdowns. While the analysis does not employ numerical modeling of cross-sectoral impacts, it integrates stakeholder consultations and local policy data to trace the pathways of risk transmission. The study recommends adaptive responses including improved water harvesting, nature-based infrastructure, and climate-resilient urban planning. This includes the promotion of small-scale water reservoirs, groundwater recharge systems, and green infrastructure to mitigate urban water stress and protect peri-urban agricultural zones. These findings offer not only a deeper understanding of Cape Coast’s multi-sectoral vulnerabilities but also present a transferable methodological framework that combines regional projections with sectoral insights. This integrated approach supports anticipatory urban adaptation planning and contributes to more responsive policy formulation in coastal cities facing escalating, cascading climate hazards.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Future climate risks and sectoral vulnerabilities shaping resilience in the Cape Coast Metropolis, Ghana

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月5日

查看全文
  • Yaw Agyeman Boafo,
  • Bob Manteaw,
  • Philip Antwi-Agyei,
  • Portia Adade-Williams,
  • Nana Ama Browne Klutse,
  • Kofi Asare,
  • Doreen Larkailey Lartey,
  • Bernard Ayittiah

摘要

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, flooding, and seasonal rainfall disruption, placing coastal cities at growing risk of multisectoral impacts. This study assesses future climate risks and sectoral vulnerabilities in a low-lying urban setting using daily temperature and rainfall data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), and downscaled projections from ten GCM-RCM combinations using quantile–quantile transformation. The projections, analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, identify significant warming trends and heightened rainfall variability through 2100. These trends were evaluated alongside a qualitative vulnerability assessment, based on the IPCC AR5 framework, to explore how projected climate hazards affect exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across sectors. Sectoral impacts were derived by linking projected stressors—such as extreme heat and rainfall shifts—to functional vulnerabilities in agriculture, fisheries, water systems, infrastructure, and health. Findings show that agriculture in particular, practiced primarily in peri-urban zones within Cape Coast, is highly susceptible to crop failure, fishery declines, and water scarcity. Informal economic sectors—such as food trading and small-scale manufacturing—are also at risk due to infrastructure damage and cascading effects on income, loans, and insurance systems. Health threats are expected to rise due to increased disease vectors, heat stress, and sanitation breakdowns. While the analysis does not employ numerical modeling of cross-sectoral impacts, it integrates stakeholder consultations and local policy data to trace the pathways of risk transmission. The study recommends adaptive responses including improved water harvesting, nature-based infrastructure, and climate-resilient urban planning. This includes the promotion of small-scale water reservoirs, groundwater recharge systems, and green infrastructure to mitigate urban water stress and protect peri-urban agricultural zones. These findings offer not only a deeper understanding of Cape Coast’s multi-sectoral vulnerabilities but also present a transferable methodological framework that combines regional projections with sectoral insights. This integrated approach supports anticipatory urban adaptation planning and contributes to more responsive policy formulation in coastal cities facing escalating, cascading climate hazards.