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<p>The present study aimed to investigate 25 years (2000–2024) of annual rainfall variability and long-term trends in the drought-prone Barind Tract of northwestern Bangladesh using annual rainfall data from 18 Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) stations. Descriptive statistical measures were employed to examine the central tendency, dispersion, and variability structure of the rainfall dataset, while the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect and quantify monotonic trends. Rainfall anomalies were further examined using the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) to capture inter-annual wet and dry fluctuations. Results indicate a dominant pattern of decreasing rainfall across the region, with statistically significant declines observed at stations such as Badalgachi (–34.99&#xa0;mm/year, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), Nachole (–23.54&#xa0;mm/year, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), and Chapai Nawabganj (–20.29&#xa0;mm/year, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01), predominantly in the western and southwestern Barind. Conversely, a few stations, including Ahsanganj (+ 23.44&#xa0;mm/year) and Nazipur (+ 4.11&#xa0;mm/year), showed increasing but statistically insignificant trends, reflecting localized resilience. SAI analysis identified multiple severe drought years, particularly between 2005 and 2009 and 2020–2024, coinciding with regions of acute groundwater depletion. Overall, this study demonstrates pronounced spatial heterogeneity in rainfall trends, emphasizing the Barind Tract’s increasing hydro-climatic vulnerability. The findings provide a robust baseline for drought monitoring, water resource planning, and adaptive climate resilience strategies in one of Bangladesh’s most water-stressed regions.</p>

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Spatial-temporal analysis of annual rainfall trends and variability in the Barind Tract

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月24日

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  • Maliha Zahin Esha,
  • Md Shahedin Alam Khan,
  • Sumaya Tabassum

摘要

The present study aimed to investigate 25 years (2000–2024) of annual rainfall variability and long-term trends in the drought-prone Barind Tract of northwestern Bangladesh using annual rainfall data from 18 Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) stations. Descriptive statistical measures were employed to examine the central tendency, dispersion, and variability structure of the rainfall dataset, while the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect and quantify monotonic trends. Rainfall anomalies were further examined using the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) to capture inter-annual wet and dry fluctuations. Results indicate a dominant pattern of decreasing rainfall across the region, with statistically significant declines observed at stations such as Badalgachi (–34.99 mm/year, p < 0.01), Nachole (–23.54 mm/year, p < 0.01), and Chapai Nawabganj (–20.29 mm/year, p < 0.01), predominantly in the western and southwestern Barind. Conversely, a few stations, including Ahsanganj (+ 23.44 mm/year) and Nazipur (+ 4.11 mm/year), showed increasing but statistically insignificant trends, reflecting localized resilience. SAI analysis identified multiple severe drought years, particularly between 2005 and 2009 and 2020–2024, coinciding with regions of acute groundwater depletion. Overall, this study demonstrates pronounced spatial heterogeneity in rainfall trends, emphasizing the Barind Tract’s increasing hydro-climatic vulnerability. The findings provide a robust baseline for drought monitoring, water resource planning, and adaptive climate resilience strategies in one of Bangladesh’s most water-stressed regions.