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<p>Understanding localized climate trends is critical for agricultural planning and climate adaptation strategies. This study investigates annual and seasonal trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme climate indices in the Ginbora watershed (1994–2024) using the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen’s slope estimator, and RClimDex for extreme event analysis. Key findings reveal a striking contradiction: while annual rainfall significantly decreased at 85.71% of stations particularly during the agriculturally vital Bega season, extreme rainfall indices showed a sharp upward trend. Notably, maximum 1-day rainfall and extremely wet days increased across all stations, signaling more intense rainfall events despite overall drying. Another critical concern is the decline in consecutive wet days, which could exacerbate water stress. Temperature trends further underscore climate change impacts, with significant warming in mean minimum temperatures and extreme temperature indices. This study’s novel contribution lies in uncovering these contrasting trends increasing rainfall extremes amid declining annual precipitation within a localized watershed, a phenomenon with major implications for agriculture and water management. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against these evolving climate risks.</p>

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Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature extremes in the Ginbora watershed, Northern Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月7日

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  • Semaigzer Ayalew,
  • Alemu Ale,
  • Mandefro Sisay

摘要

Understanding localized climate trends is critical for agricultural planning and climate adaptation strategies. This study investigates annual and seasonal trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme climate indices in the Ginbora watershed (1994–2024) using the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen’s slope estimator, and RClimDex for extreme event analysis. Key findings reveal a striking contradiction: while annual rainfall significantly decreased at 85.71% of stations particularly during the agriculturally vital Bega season, extreme rainfall indices showed a sharp upward trend. Notably, maximum 1-day rainfall and extremely wet days increased across all stations, signaling more intense rainfall events despite overall drying. Another critical concern is the decline in consecutive wet days, which could exacerbate water stress. Temperature trends further underscore climate change impacts, with significant warming in mean minimum temperatures and extreme temperature indices. This study’s novel contribution lies in uncovering these contrasting trends increasing rainfall extremes amid declining annual precipitation within a localized watershed, a phenomenon with major implications for agriculture and water management. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against these evolving climate risks.