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<p>Extreme temperatures pose significant threats to various sectors across Africa, potentially disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and socioeconomic development. This study presents projected changes in mean and extreme temperatures over Africa from 1960 to 2100 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, employing the Relative Contribution Percentage (RCP) metric and analyzing fast and slow climate system responses. Our analysis reveals a shift towards more frequent and intense warm days and nights across the continent as emission scenarios intensify. The severity of this increase is directly linked to the respective emission pathways. Under SSP585, the highest emission scenario, warm night frequency (TN90p) could increase by up to 80% continent-wide by 2100, while the low emission scenario (SSP126) projects a more modest increase of 27%. Regional variations in vulnerability to temperature extremes are significant. West and North Africa show the highest projected increases in TX90p and TN90p across most emission scenarios. In contrast, East and Southern Africa exhibit relatively lower increases, particularly for TX90p. Our attribution analysis indicates that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is the dominant driver of observed and projected temperature extremes, with relative contributions of 120% and 117% to TX90p and TN90p trends, respectively. Aerosol forcing partially offsets this warming effect, with relative contributions of −&#xa0;73% and −&#xa0;70% to TX90p and TN90p trends.</p>

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Multi-forcing impacts on temperature extremes over Africa: anthropogenic, aerosols, natural, and solar influences under higher emission pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月23日

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  • Michael T. Odunmorayo,
  • Ayomide V. Arowolo,
  • Isiaq A. Okeyode,
  • Precious Ebiendele

摘要

Extreme temperatures pose significant threats to various sectors across Africa, potentially disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and socioeconomic development. This study presents projected changes in mean and extreme temperatures over Africa from 1960 to 2100 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, employing the Relative Contribution Percentage (RCP) metric and analyzing fast and slow climate system responses. Our analysis reveals a shift towards more frequent and intense warm days and nights across the continent as emission scenarios intensify. The severity of this increase is directly linked to the respective emission pathways. Under SSP585, the highest emission scenario, warm night frequency (TN90p) could increase by up to 80% continent-wide by 2100, while the low emission scenario (SSP126) projects a more modest increase of 27%. Regional variations in vulnerability to temperature extremes are significant. West and North Africa show the highest projected increases in TX90p and TN90p across most emission scenarios. In contrast, East and Southern Africa exhibit relatively lower increases, particularly for TX90p. Our attribution analysis indicates that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is the dominant driver of observed and projected temperature extremes, with relative contributions of 120% and 117% to TX90p and TN90p trends, respectively. Aerosol forcing partially offsets this warming effect, with relative contributions of − 73% and − 70% to TX90p and TN90p trends.