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<p>This study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FF&amp;EWS) over the diverse topographic region of Indus River Basin (IRB), Pakistan using the SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) approach. In Indus River Basin (IRB), floods is the most recurrent and destructive natural hazards leading to significant loss of lives, widespread disruption of livelihoods and infrastructure. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the operational capacity, institutional coordination, technological adequacy, and community-level response mechanisms that shape the performance of the FF&amp;EWS. The study area includes flood-prone areas across the IRB with a particular focus on the vulnerable districts. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources, including focus group discussion with officials of the line agencies, household surveys, expert interviews, field observations, institutional reports and hydro-meteorological datasets provided by PMD, WAPDA, NDMA, PDMAs, and local administrations. The analysis involved descriptive statistics, thematic coding and SWOT-based categorization to assess forecasting accuracy, dissemination and institutional gaps. GIS-based mapping and cross-comparison of stakeholder responses further strengthened the analytical process. The analysis revealed that Pakistan FF&amp;EWS has made significant progress through the installation of modern radar systems, satellite-based monitoring and improved institutional collaboration. However, FF&amp;EWS weaknesses that include communication gap, limited community awareness, insufficient local-level infrastructure and inadequate integration of indigenous knowledge that hinder effectiveness. Opportunities that exists are international climate financing, mainstreaming science and technology in FF&amp;EWS, regional cooperation and community based flood early warning. Similarly, climate variability, rapid glacial melt, socioeconomic disparities and political-institutional fragmentation pose threats to the sustainability of early warning system. The study highlighted the need of multi-layered, people-centered and technology-integrated approach to flood forecasting and early warning. Based on the results, there is a need to upgrade the hydro-meteorological networks, enhancing local-level dissemination channels, promoting inter-agency coordination and strengthening community education programs. Future research should focus on incorporating climate change projections, evaluating real-time data and developing district-level resilience models to ensure more effective preparedness and response in Pakistan.</p>

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Evaluating the effectiveness of flood forecasting and early warning system in the diverse topographic region of Indus River Basin, Pakistan using the SWOT approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月11日

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  • Naveed Jamal,
  • Atta Ur Rahman

摘要

This study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FF&EWS) over the diverse topographic region of Indus River Basin (IRB), Pakistan using the SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) approach. In Indus River Basin (IRB), floods is the most recurrent and destructive natural hazards leading to significant loss of lives, widespread disruption of livelihoods and infrastructure. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the operational capacity, institutional coordination, technological adequacy, and community-level response mechanisms that shape the performance of the FF&EWS. The study area includes flood-prone areas across the IRB with a particular focus on the vulnerable districts. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources, including focus group discussion with officials of the line agencies, household surveys, expert interviews, field observations, institutional reports and hydro-meteorological datasets provided by PMD, WAPDA, NDMA, PDMAs, and local administrations. The analysis involved descriptive statistics, thematic coding and SWOT-based categorization to assess forecasting accuracy, dissemination and institutional gaps. GIS-based mapping and cross-comparison of stakeholder responses further strengthened the analytical process. The analysis revealed that Pakistan FF&EWS has made significant progress through the installation of modern radar systems, satellite-based monitoring and improved institutional collaboration. However, FF&EWS weaknesses that include communication gap, limited community awareness, insufficient local-level infrastructure and inadequate integration of indigenous knowledge that hinder effectiveness. Opportunities that exists are international climate financing, mainstreaming science and technology in FF&EWS, regional cooperation and community based flood early warning. Similarly, climate variability, rapid glacial melt, socioeconomic disparities and political-institutional fragmentation pose threats to the sustainability of early warning system. The study highlighted the need of multi-layered, people-centered and technology-integrated approach to flood forecasting and early warning. Based on the results, there is a need to upgrade the hydro-meteorological networks, enhancing local-level dissemination channels, promoting inter-agency coordination and strengthening community education programs. Future research should focus on incorporating climate change projections, evaluating real-time data and developing district-level resilience models to ensure more effective preparedness and response in Pakistan.