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<p>Volcanic seismic swarms, clusters of earthquakes without a distinct mainshock, are commonly linked to magma and fluid movements rather than tectonic stress transfer. Magma and hydrothermal fluid migration can perturb the ambient stress field and trigger volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity on surrounding structures, either through dike propagation or inflation and associated stress changes. We analyze nine seismic catalogs from eight volcanic systems, including two unrest periods at Campi Flegrei, to investigate the spatial organization of swarm activity. Using a standardized declustering method and stacking radial distance distributions from the largest-magnitude event in each swarm, we identify a consistent two-regime spatial pattern across most volcanoes: an approximately uniform density at short distances and an exponential decay at larger scales. The transition scale <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\delta _0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> varies among volcanoes and may reflect local structural or physical constraints, while the decay slope decreases with volcano size. Santorini represents an exception, suggesting site-specific influences. These empirical regularities provide new observational benchmarks for physical models of swarm dynamics and may inform the development of improved forecasting tools for volcanic seismicity.</p>

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Common spatial patterns in earthquake swarms from volcanic systems worldwide

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月19日

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  • Cataldo Godano,
  • Giuseppe Petrillo

摘要

Volcanic seismic swarms, clusters of earthquakes without a distinct mainshock, are commonly linked to magma and fluid movements rather than tectonic stress transfer. Magma and hydrothermal fluid migration can perturb the ambient stress field and trigger volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity on surrounding structures, either through dike propagation or inflation and associated stress changes. We analyze nine seismic catalogs from eight volcanic systems, including two unrest periods at Campi Flegrei, to investigate the spatial organization of swarm activity. Using a standardized declustering method and stacking radial distance distributions from the largest-magnitude event in each swarm, we identify a consistent two-regime spatial pattern across most volcanoes: an approximately uniform density at short distances and an exponential decay at larger scales. The transition scale \(\delta _0\) varies among volcanoes and may reflect local structural or physical constraints, while the decay slope decreases with volcano size. Santorini represents an exception, suggesting site-specific influences. These empirical regularities provide new observational benchmarks for physical models of swarm dynamics and may inform the development of improved forecasting tools for volcanic seismicity.