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<p>Genotype × environment (G × E) interactions present a critical challenge for sorghum breeding in the Sahel, where high climatic and edaphic variability strongly affects crop performance under rainfed conditions. This study develops a quantitative framework to define and characterize target population environments (TPE) for sorghum cultivation in Senegal by integrating climate variability, soil properties, and process-based crop modeling. We combined the SAMARA crop model with 50&#xa0;years of daily historical climate data (1974–2024) and spatially explicit soil information to simulate rainfed sorghum grain yield and water stress patterns across Senegal. TPE were delineated through multivariate classification incorporating simulated yield distributions, phenology-specific water stress indices for early and late developmental stages, and interannual yield stability metrics. We quantified yield sensitivity to water stress at different developmental stages using linear regression and assessed genotype × TPE interactions through joint regression analysis (Finlay–Wilkinson). Five distinct TPE were identified. Northern environments (TPE 1–2) exhibited low simulated yield potential (&lt; 1.0 t ha⁻<sup>1</sup>), high interannual variability, and severe terminal water stress, defining marginal zones for rainfed sorghum. Central and southern environments (TPE 3–5) showed moderate to high yield potential (more than 2.5 t ha⁻<sup>1</sup>) but differed markedly in stress regimes. Terminal drought emerged as the dominant constraint, causing simulated yield reductions exceeding 40% in TPE 3 and approximately 20% in TPE 4, whereas TPE 5 showed low sensitivity to late-season water stress and relatively stable yields. Across all TPE, productivity and stability gradients were jointly explained by rainfall amount and distribution, temperature regime, evapotranspiration demand, and soil water-holding capacity. These results show that crop model-based TPE characterization provides a robust, quantitative foundation for targeted sorghum breeding in Senegal, supporting differentiated strategies that prioritize drought tolerance and yield stability in stress-prone environments while maximizing yield potential in favorable, low-risk environments.</p>

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Modelling genotype and environment interactions to delineate sorghum target population environments in Senegal

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

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  • Diariétou Sambakhé,
  • Malick Ndiaye,
  • Bassirou Sine,
  • Ahmadou Sow,
  • Cyril Diatta,
  • Modou Mbaye,
  • Jacques Martin Faye,
  • Ndjido Ardo Kane

摘要

Genotype × environment (G × E) interactions present a critical challenge for sorghum breeding in the Sahel, where high climatic and edaphic variability strongly affects crop performance under rainfed conditions. This study develops a quantitative framework to define and characterize target population environments (TPE) for sorghum cultivation in Senegal by integrating climate variability, soil properties, and process-based crop modeling. We combined the SAMARA crop model with 50 years of daily historical climate data (1974–2024) and spatially explicit soil information to simulate rainfed sorghum grain yield and water stress patterns across Senegal. TPE were delineated through multivariate classification incorporating simulated yield distributions, phenology-specific water stress indices for early and late developmental stages, and interannual yield stability metrics. We quantified yield sensitivity to water stress at different developmental stages using linear regression and assessed genotype × TPE interactions through joint regression analysis (Finlay–Wilkinson). Five distinct TPE were identified. Northern environments (TPE 1–2) exhibited low simulated yield potential (< 1.0 t ha⁻1), high interannual variability, and severe terminal water stress, defining marginal zones for rainfed sorghum. Central and southern environments (TPE 3–5) showed moderate to high yield potential (more than 2.5 t ha⁻1) but differed markedly in stress regimes. Terminal drought emerged as the dominant constraint, causing simulated yield reductions exceeding 40% in TPE 3 and approximately 20% in TPE 4, whereas TPE 5 showed low sensitivity to late-season water stress and relatively stable yields. Across all TPE, productivity and stability gradients were jointly explained by rainfall amount and distribution, temperature regime, evapotranspiration demand, and soil water-holding capacity. These results show that crop model-based TPE characterization provides a robust, quantitative foundation for targeted sorghum breeding in Senegal, supporting differentiated strategies that prioritize drought tolerance and yield stability in stress-prone environments while maximizing yield potential in favorable, low-risk environments.