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<p>Air pollution from fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses a significant environmental health challenge in rapidly urbanizing African cities. Lagos, Nigeria, experiences severe traffic congestion and elevated ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations, yet localized estimates of associated health impacts remain limited. This study applies the World Health Organization’s AirQ⁺ model to quantify mortality attributable to PM₂.₅ exposure along the Ikeja traffic corridor, a representative high-traffic urban environment. Ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations were monitored using a high-resolution SNAQ sensor over four months (November 2018–February 2019), yielding a mean concentration of 73.75&#xa0;µg/m<sup>3</sup> and peaks exceeding 123&#xa0;µg/m<sup>3</sup>. Population data for Ikeja (≈475,000 residents) and cause-specific mortality rates from the Institute for Health Metrics and national statistics were used as model inputs. Using the study-period mean concentration, AirQ⁺ estimated that acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) accounted for the largest number of attributable deaths over the four-month period (4,131; 520 per 100,000 population), while lung cancer (54.1%) and ischemic heart disease (50.8%) showed the highest attributable fractions. Weekly and monthly analyses revealed that even modest fluctuations in PM₂.₅ levels could meaningfully influence respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Scenario analysis indicates that a 10% reduction in PM₂.₅ concentrations could prevent more than 1,400 premature deaths, highlighting the potential health benefits of targeted emission control and traffic management strategies. These findings underscore the substantial burden of traffic-related PM₂.₅ exposure in Lagos and provide critical evidence to guide urban air quality interventions and public health policy in rapidly developing African megacities.</p>

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Assessment of PM₂.₅ related health impacts along a major traffic corridor in Lagos using the WHO AirQ⁺ model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Oladimeji A. Babatunde,
  • Olanrewaju B. Fayemi,
  • Lukman A. Sunmonu,
  • Ayodele P. Olufemi,
  • Oghenenyovwe Ovie,
  • Oluyinka A. Oluwale,
  • Adebiyi S. Adebayo,
  • Adesina T. Sode,
  • Oyediran K. Owoade

摘要

Air pollution from fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses a significant environmental health challenge in rapidly urbanizing African cities. Lagos, Nigeria, experiences severe traffic congestion and elevated ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations, yet localized estimates of associated health impacts remain limited. This study applies the World Health Organization’s AirQ⁺ model to quantify mortality attributable to PM₂.₅ exposure along the Ikeja traffic corridor, a representative high-traffic urban environment. Ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations were monitored using a high-resolution SNAQ sensor over four months (November 2018–February 2019), yielding a mean concentration of 73.75 µg/m3 and peaks exceeding 123 µg/m3. Population data for Ikeja (≈475,000 residents) and cause-specific mortality rates from the Institute for Health Metrics and national statistics were used as model inputs. Using the study-period mean concentration, AirQ⁺ estimated that acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) accounted for the largest number of attributable deaths over the four-month period (4,131; 520 per 100,000 population), while lung cancer (54.1%) and ischemic heart disease (50.8%) showed the highest attributable fractions. Weekly and monthly analyses revealed that even modest fluctuations in PM₂.₅ levels could meaningfully influence respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Scenario analysis indicates that a 10% reduction in PM₂.₅ concentrations could prevent more than 1,400 premature deaths, highlighting the potential health benefits of targeted emission control and traffic management strategies. These findings underscore the substantial burden of traffic-related PM₂.₅ exposure in Lagos and provide critical evidence to guide urban air quality interventions and public health policy in rapidly developing African megacities.