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<p>National participatory forest policies have been widely adopted across East Africa to combat deforestation and empower local communities. However, empirical assessments reveal profoundly heterogeneous outcomes. This study conducted a quantitative comparative analysis of forest cover outcomes associated with major policy implementations in Tanzania (2002), Uganda (2003), Kenya (2005), and Rwanda (2011). Using a balanced panel dataset (FAO FRA 1990–2025) and fixed-effects regression with bootstrap inference, we examined the association between implementation strategy, specifically the scale of state-led plantation investment and divergent forest cover outcomes. Rwanda’s policy was associated with a significant net forest cover gain of 6.04 percentage points, whereas Uganda experienced a significant loss of 6.89 percentage points and Tanzania a loss of 7.10 percentage points. Kenya’s policy showed no statistically significant effect (estimated change =  + 0.05 percentage points, 95% CI −&#xa0;0.52 to + 0.57). A fixed-effects panel regression identified a significant positive interaction (β = 0.181, p &lt; 0.01) between post-policy status and plantation share, suggesting the policy-outcome association varies with investment intensity. High plantation investment appears to create enabling conditions for participatory models to succeed. We conclude that translating participatory designs into positive outcomes is fundamentally linked to the scale of complementary resource commitment. Our analysis reveals that participatory policies without substantial complementary investment are associated with continued forest loss, while those coupled with high plantation investment (as in Rwanda) show significant gains. These findings suggest an association between implementation intensity and forest policy outcomes in East Africa; however, causality cannot be established from this observational study.</p>

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Comparing forest policy outcomes and plantation investment across East Africa

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Ronald Ogenrwot

摘要

National participatory forest policies have been widely adopted across East Africa to combat deforestation and empower local communities. However, empirical assessments reveal profoundly heterogeneous outcomes. This study conducted a quantitative comparative analysis of forest cover outcomes associated with major policy implementations in Tanzania (2002), Uganda (2003), Kenya (2005), and Rwanda (2011). Using a balanced panel dataset (FAO FRA 1990–2025) and fixed-effects regression with bootstrap inference, we examined the association between implementation strategy, specifically the scale of state-led plantation investment and divergent forest cover outcomes. Rwanda’s policy was associated with a significant net forest cover gain of 6.04 percentage points, whereas Uganda experienced a significant loss of 6.89 percentage points and Tanzania a loss of 7.10 percentage points. Kenya’s policy showed no statistically significant effect (estimated change =  + 0.05 percentage points, 95% CI − 0.52 to + 0.57). A fixed-effects panel regression identified a significant positive interaction (β = 0.181, p < 0.01) between post-policy status and plantation share, suggesting the policy-outcome association varies with investment intensity. High plantation investment appears to create enabling conditions for participatory models to succeed. We conclude that translating participatory designs into positive outcomes is fundamentally linked to the scale of complementary resource commitment. Our analysis reveals that participatory policies without substantial complementary investment are associated with continued forest loss, while those coupled with high plantation investment (as in Rwanda) show significant gains. These findings suggest an association between implementation intensity and forest policy outcomes in East Africa; however, causality cannot be established from this observational study.