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<p>Global forest cover declined by 178 million hectares between 1990 and 2020, with resource-rich economies experiencing disproportionate losses. This study examines associations between natural resource rents, regulatory quality, population density, agricultural land expansion, economic growth, urbanization, and human capital on forest cover dynamics across ten resource-based economies ( 1999–2023). Using ARDL, FMOLS, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests, we identify three robust patterns. First, agricultural land expansion consistently reduces forest cover across estimators. Second, economic growth exhibits negative associations with forest cover, suggesting resource-intensive trajectories may flatten Environmental Kuznets Curve turning points in these contexts. Third, urbanization and population density show positive associations, potentially reflecting rural depopulation effects. Critically, natural resource rents exhibit contradictory signs across estimators, revealing context-dependent mechanisms where Dutch Disease effects may offset governance failure channels depending on institutional quality. Findings refine established frameworks by demonstrating that institutional quality conditions theoretical mechanisms rather than uniformly moderating relationships. Policy implications prioritize land-use planning as the most defensible intervention given robust agricultural expansion effects.</p>

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Economic demographic and institutional drivers of deforestation in resource-based economies revisited through a Kuznets lens

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Saqib Munir,
  • Mushab Rashid,
  • Abdul Ghaffar

摘要

Global forest cover declined by 178 million hectares between 1990 and 2020, with resource-rich economies experiencing disproportionate losses. This study examines associations between natural resource rents, regulatory quality, population density, agricultural land expansion, economic growth, urbanization, and human capital on forest cover dynamics across ten resource-based economies ( 1999–2023). Using ARDL, FMOLS, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality tests, we identify three robust patterns. First, agricultural land expansion consistently reduces forest cover across estimators. Second, economic growth exhibits negative associations with forest cover, suggesting resource-intensive trajectories may flatten Environmental Kuznets Curve turning points in these contexts. Third, urbanization and population density show positive associations, potentially reflecting rural depopulation effects. Critically, natural resource rents exhibit contradictory signs across estimators, revealing context-dependent mechanisms where Dutch Disease effects may offset governance failure channels depending on institutional quality. Findings refine established frameworks by demonstrating that institutional quality conditions theoretical mechanisms rather than uniformly moderating relationships. Policy implications prioritize land-use planning as the most defensible intervention given robust agricultural expansion effects.