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<p>This study examines primary factors affecting yield dynamics in Ethiopia’s cash crop sector using data from the Ethiopian Annual Agricultural Survey (2003–2021). The analysis constructs a pseudo-panel and applies a dynamic system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimator within a modified Cobb–Douglas framework. The findings suggest a smaller positive path dependency effect, given that a 1% growth in previous cash crop yields is associated with a 0.035% rise in present yields. The effects of the main inputs are mixed, based on their elasticity coefficients. The application of urea fertiliser had a positive coefficient (0.145), whereas land used for planting and diammonium phosphate fertiliser had negative coefficients (− 0.133 and − 0.119, respectively), which could indicate diminishing returns and excessive application of these two inputs. Extension is found to positively affect output by approximately 11.84%, whereas soil conservation activities are observed to reduce yields by approximately 4.86% in the short term. The use of natural fertilisers resulted in the lowest increase in yield of approximately 5.26%, whereas the use of chemical crop protection, particularly fungicides, increased yield by 13.35%. Ethiopian policy programs such as PASDEP and GTP-II have been shown to be effective in increasing productivity, with PASDEP increasing by as much as 348.36%. Therefore, the effective use of inputs, extension services, and focused policy interventions appear to remain the key drivers for enhancing cash crop productivity in Ethiopia.</p>

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Longitudinal analysis of cash crop yield responses to inputs farm management and climate adaptation practices in Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Daregot Berihun Tenessa

摘要

This study examines primary factors affecting yield dynamics in Ethiopia’s cash crop sector using data from the Ethiopian Annual Agricultural Survey (2003–2021). The analysis constructs a pseudo-panel and applies a dynamic system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimator within a modified Cobb–Douglas framework. The findings suggest a smaller positive path dependency effect, given that a 1% growth in previous cash crop yields is associated with a 0.035% rise in present yields. The effects of the main inputs are mixed, based on their elasticity coefficients. The application of urea fertiliser had a positive coefficient (0.145), whereas land used for planting and diammonium phosphate fertiliser had negative coefficients (− 0.133 and − 0.119, respectively), which could indicate diminishing returns and excessive application of these two inputs. Extension is found to positively affect output by approximately 11.84%, whereas soil conservation activities are observed to reduce yields by approximately 4.86% in the short term. The use of natural fertilisers resulted in the lowest increase in yield of approximately 5.26%, whereas the use of chemical crop protection, particularly fungicides, increased yield by 13.35%. Ethiopian policy programs such as PASDEP and GTP-II have been shown to be effective in increasing productivity, with PASDEP increasing by as much as 348.36%. Therefore, the effective use of inputs, extension services, and focused policy interventions appear to remain the key drivers for enhancing cash crop productivity in Ethiopia.