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<p>This study assessed farmers' local knowledge of climate variability and its link to climatic data in Ngoma District using rainfall and temperature data for the 1983–2021 period obtained from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, with survey responses gathered from 400 farmers. Trend analysis at α = 95% was computed using the Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The Results indicated a statistically significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) at rates of −&#xa0;0.0345&#xa0;°C/year during MAM and −&#xa0;0.02657&#xa0;°C/year during SOND. For both MAM and SOND seasons, mean temperature (T) and minimum temperature (Tn) increased by 0.0115&#xa0;°C/year and 0.014&#xa0;°C/year (T) and by 0.023&#xa0;°C/year and 0.021&#xa0;°C/year (Tn), respectively. Conversely, maximum temperature (Tx) exhibited decreasing trends of -0.0114&#xa0;°C/year (MAM) and −&#xa0;0.007&#xa0;°C/year (SOND). The onset date (OD) ranges between February 9 and April 9 for MAM, and between September 7 and November 26 for SOND. The cessation date (CD) ranges from June 2 to 12 during MAM and from December 29 to January 12 during SOND. There are both similarities and differences between local knowledge and climate data. Most respondents (63% for MAM and 84% for SOND) are unaware of the onset of the seasons. The Majority of farmers (99%) indicate that SOND last longer than usual while 83% indicate that MAM starts later than usual. Furthermore, nearly all (97%) are aware of the information disseminated by Meteo-Rwanda. The data confirmed significant farmer perceptions, including increased rainfall intensity, irregular seasonal patterns, and shifts in precipitation dynamics. Enhancing farmers’ knowledge and accessibility to diverse climate information would support agricultural management and planning, thereby boosting agricultural productivity.</p>

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Assessing the link between climatic information and farmers’ local knowledge on climate variability in Ngoma District, Rwanda

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月15日

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  • Justin Munyaneza,
  • Ndakize Joseph Sebaziga,
  • William Mugabo,
  • Bernard Niyigena,
  • Christophe Mupenzi,
  • Godfrey Musafiri,
  • Kazora Jonah,
  • Benjamin Manirakiza,
  • David Ukwishaka

摘要

This study assessed farmers' local knowledge of climate variability and its link to climatic data in Ngoma District using rainfall and temperature data for the 1983–2021 period obtained from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency, with survey responses gathered from 400 farmers. Trend analysis at α = 95% was computed using the Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The Results indicated a statistically significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) at rates of − 0.0345 °C/year during MAM and − 0.02657 °C/year during SOND. For both MAM and SOND seasons, mean temperature (T) and minimum temperature (Tn) increased by 0.0115 °C/year and 0.014 °C/year (T) and by 0.023 °C/year and 0.021 °C/year (Tn), respectively. Conversely, maximum temperature (Tx) exhibited decreasing trends of -0.0114 °C/year (MAM) and − 0.007 °C/year (SOND). The onset date (OD) ranges between February 9 and April 9 for MAM, and between September 7 and November 26 for SOND. The cessation date (CD) ranges from June 2 to 12 during MAM and from December 29 to January 12 during SOND. There are both similarities and differences between local knowledge and climate data. Most respondents (63% for MAM and 84% for SOND) are unaware of the onset of the seasons. The Majority of farmers (99%) indicate that SOND last longer than usual while 83% indicate that MAM starts later than usual. Furthermore, nearly all (97%) are aware of the information disseminated by Meteo-Rwanda. The data confirmed significant farmer perceptions, including increased rainfall intensity, irregular seasonal patterns, and shifts in precipitation dynamics. Enhancing farmers’ knowledge and accessibility to diverse climate information would support agricultural management and planning, thereby boosting agricultural productivity.