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<p>This study analyzes the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in G20 countries from 2005 to 2023, focusing on the roles of digitalization and financial inclusion. Using linear and quadratic System GMM models that account for endogeneity, dynamic persistence, and cross-sectional dependence, the results reveal a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between trade openness and per capita economic growth. Specifically, trade openness exerts a positive effect on growth up to an estimated threshold of approximately 68% of GDP (with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 37.8% to 122.7%), beyond which its marginal benefits diminish or even turn negative, consistent with a Kuznets-type nonlinearity. The findings further uncover significant heterogeneity across country groups. Advanced economies exhibit a higher optimal trade threshold (around 90% of GDP), reflecting their resilient institutions, mature trade infrastructures, and advanced digital ecosystems. In contrast, emerging economies reach their peak growth impact at a much lower level (approximately 33% of GDP), suggesting greater vulnerability to external shocks and structural constraints. Digitalization, measured as a composite index of internet penetration, mobile broadband subscriptions, secure internet servers, and ICT service exports, exerts a strong positive direct effect on growth and significantly amplifies the growth-enhancing impact of trade openness through a statistically significant interaction term. Financial inclusion similarly reinforces this nexus by broadening access to credit, fostering entrepreneurship, and enhancing market participation. The results demonstrate that trade openness alone is insufficient to guarantee sustained economic growth. Complementary investments in digital infrastructure and inclusive financial systems are critical to its effectiveness. These findings underscore the importance of an integrated policy framework, what might be termed “smart openness”, that strategically aligns trade liberalization with national digital transformation agendas and financial development initiatives to maximize inclusive and resilient growth in both advanced and emerging G20 economies. Clinical trial number: The Clinical trial is not applicable.</p>

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The influence of digitalization on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in G20 countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Mariem Bouattour,
  • Intissar Saadaoui,
  • Salem Kanoun,
  • Kamel Helali

摘要

This study analyzes the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in G20 countries from 2005 to 2023, focusing on the roles of digitalization and financial inclusion. Using linear and quadratic System GMM models that account for endogeneity, dynamic persistence, and cross-sectional dependence, the results reveal a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between trade openness and per capita economic growth. Specifically, trade openness exerts a positive effect on growth up to an estimated threshold of approximately 68% of GDP (with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 37.8% to 122.7%), beyond which its marginal benefits diminish or even turn negative, consistent with a Kuznets-type nonlinearity. The findings further uncover significant heterogeneity across country groups. Advanced economies exhibit a higher optimal trade threshold (around 90% of GDP), reflecting their resilient institutions, mature trade infrastructures, and advanced digital ecosystems. In contrast, emerging economies reach their peak growth impact at a much lower level (approximately 33% of GDP), suggesting greater vulnerability to external shocks and structural constraints. Digitalization, measured as a composite index of internet penetration, mobile broadband subscriptions, secure internet servers, and ICT service exports, exerts a strong positive direct effect on growth and significantly amplifies the growth-enhancing impact of trade openness through a statistically significant interaction term. Financial inclusion similarly reinforces this nexus by broadening access to credit, fostering entrepreneurship, and enhancing market participation. The results demonstrate that trade openness alone is insufficient to guarantee sustained economic growth. Complementary investments in digital infrastructure and inclusive financial systems are critical to its effectiveness. These findings underscore the importance of an integrated policy framework, what might be termed “smart openness”, that strategically aligns trade liberalization with national digital transformation agendas and financial development initiatives to maximize inclusive and resilient growth in both advanced and emerging G20 economies. Clinical trial number: The Clinical trial is not applicable.