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<p>The Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region of Bangladesh has undergone significant environmental degradation over the past three decades, primarily driven by deforestation, rapid population growth, agricultural expansion, and urban development. To address these challenges, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) in the CHT and evaluates their impacts on carbon storage and sequestration. Landsat satellite imagery from 1993 to 2023 was analyzed at 10-year intervals using a supervised classification approach, and change maps were developed to illustrate patterns of LULC transformation. Future LULC for 2033 and 2043 was projected using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) with a Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. Ecosystem Services Modeler was used to estimate carbon storage and sequestration for each time period, correlating land cover classes with carbon density values, and to estimate economic value using the social cost of carbon. Findings revealed substantial deep forest loss alongside increases in built-up areas, agricultural land, and non-forest vegetation. Carbon storage will&#xa0;decline steadily, from 75,674 Mg in 1993 to a projected 70,221 Mg in 2043. Sequestration trends were predominantly negative, with the exception of a minor increase (227 Mg) from 2003 to 2013. The economic valuation yielded a temporary gain of +18,074 USD (2003–2013), followed by subsequent losses in other periods. The findings underscore the urgent need for forest conservation, afforestation, and sustainable land management to mitigate carbon loss and enhance climate resilience in the CHT region.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Land use transformation and carbon sequestration in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, Bangladesh: a spatiotemporal and predictive analysis with economic implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月20日

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  • Mahfuja Khandaker,
  • A. S. M. Maksud Kamal,
  • Md. Jakir Hossain,
  • Md. Zillur Rahman,
  • Md. Shakhawat Hossain,
  • Subrata Sarker

摘要

The Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region of Bangladesh has undergone significant environmental degradation over the past three decades, primarily driven by deforestation, rapid population growth, agricultural expansion, and urban development. To address these challenges, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) in the CHT and evaluates their impacts on carbon storage and sequestration. Landsat satellite imagery from 1993 to 2023 was analyzed at 10-year intervals using a supervised classification approach, and change maps were developed to illustrate patterns of LULC transformation. Future LULC for 2033 and 2043 was projected using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) with a Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. Ecosystem Services Modeler was used to estimate carbon storage and sequestration for each time period, correlating land cover classes with carbon density values, and to estimate economic value using the social cost of carbon. Findings revealed substantial deep forest loss alongside increases in built-up areas, agricultural land, and non-forest vegetation. Carbon storage will decline steadily, from 75,674 Mg in 1993 to a projected 70,221 Mg in 2043. Sequestration trends were predominantly negative, with the exception of a minor increase (227 Mg) from 2003 to 2013. The economic valuation yielded a temporary gain of +18,074 USD (2003–2013), followed by subsequent losses in other periods. The findings underscore the urgent need for forest conservation, afforestation, and sustainable land management to mitigate carbon loss and enhance climate resilience in the CHT region.

Graphical Abstract