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<p>Active mobility, including walking and cycling, is a core strategy for sustainable urban development, yet its adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) risks in coastal cities remains underexplored. Taking Amsterdam, the Netherlands as a case study, this paper assesses the vulnerability of active mobility networks to SLR, quantifies associated accessibility and connectivity losses, and proposes targeted adaptive planning strategies. We integrated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) global projections and local SLR monitoring data to establish 6 SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100, simulated inundation characteristics via the Enhanced Bathtub Model, and evaluated network performance changes using space syntax-based DepthmapX software with multi-source geospatial and socio-economic data. Results show that 2050 scenarios only cause peripheral flooding, while 2100 0.82&#xa0;m SLR triggers barrier-overtopping, inundating up to 35.64% of the network, with significant accessibility losses in urban peripheries and stable connectivity in the historic core. Socio-economic analysis reveals no statistically significant correlation between accessibility loss and neighborhood socio-economic status, indicating that SLR risks affect residents across all groups equally. We identify a 0.82&#xa0;m critical SLR inflection point, propose three spatial adaptive strategies, and provide a replicable assessment framework for climate-resilient active mobility planning in coastal cities.</p>

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Assessing sea-level rise impacts on active mobility: a case study of Amsterdam

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月6日

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  • Aymeric Olivier Laurent Brouez,
  • Zhen Yuan,
  • Wengin Chung,
  • Chao Liu

摘要

Active mobility, including walking and cycling, is a core strategy for sustainable urban development, yet its adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) risks in coastal cities remains underexplored. Taking Amsterdam, the Netherlands as a case study, this paper assesses the vulnerability of active mobility networks to SLR, quantifies associated accessibility and connectivity losses, and proposes targeted adaptive planning strategies. We integrated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) global projections and local SLR monitoring data to establish 6 SLR scenarios for 2050 and 2100, simulated inundation characteristics via the Enhanced Bathtub Model, and evaluated network performance changes using space syntax-based DepthmapX software with multi-source geospatial and socio-economic data. Results show that 2050 scenarios only cause peripheral flooding, while 2100 0.82 m SLR triggers barrier-overtopping, inundating up to 35.64% of the network, with significant accessibility losses in urban peripheries and stable connectivity in the historic core. Socio-economic analysis reveals no statistically significant correlation between accessibility loss and neighborhood socio-economic status, indicating that SLR risks affect residents across all groups equally. We identify a 0.82 m critical SLR inflection point, propose three spatial adaptive strategies, and provide a replicable assessment framework for climate-resilient active mobility planning in coastal cities.