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<p>This study explores the dynamics of affective polarization and the impact of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic on voter expectations in the 2024 Presidential election. Employing a nationally representative sample across age, gender, ethnicity, and political party affiliation, our analyses reveal that, in addition to exhibiting strong ingroup preferences, Americans feel the most warmth toward independent voters, followed by Democrats and then Republicans. The study revealed a robust anchoring effect in voter expectations: participants overwhelmingly believed that the majority would vote for their preferred candidate–either Trump or Biden–demonstrating strong consensus bias. Following Trump's 2024 victory, this cognitive bias is particularly relevant, as it offers insights into the polarized reactions to the election outcome and the persistence of skepticism toward electoral processes. These findings emphasize the ongoing need to rebuild electoral trust and address the structural and psychological factors contributing to division and distrust in American democracy.</p>

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Polarized perceptions—how anchoring shaped voter expectations to the 2024 presidential election

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月17日

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  • Layton Seth Curl,
  • Courtney A. Rocheleau

摘要

This study explores the dynamics of affective polarization and the impact of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic on voter expectations in the 2024 Presidential election. Employing a nationally representative sample across age, gender, ethnicity, and political party affiliation, our analyses reveal that, in addition to exhibiting strong ingroup preferences, Americans feel the most warmth toward independent voters, followed by Democrats and then Republicans. The study revealed a robust anchoring effect in voter expectations: participants overwhelmingly believed that the majority would vote for their preferred candidate–either Trump or Biden–demonstrating strong consensus bias. Following Trump's 2024 victory, this cognitive bias is particularly relevant, as it offers insights into the polarized reactions to the election outcome and the persistence of skepticism toward electoral processes. These findings emphasize the ongoing need to rebuild electoral trust and address the structural and psychological factors contributing to division and distrust in American democracy.