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<p>Understanding food and beverage inflation in a high-income country such as the United States is essential, as persistent increases in food prices disproportionately affect low-income households and raise concerns about food security and food system resilience. This study examines the influence of climate variability, agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), and external drivers on food and beverage inflation in the United States from 1992.01 to 2024.05. To capture climate conditions, we employ the components of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) for the United States and Canada. We also incorporate agricultural TFP for the U.S. and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) to account for productivity and global disruptions. Methodologically, we apply the quantile factor model (Chen et al. in Econometrica 89:875–910, 2021) to extract common dynamics and extreme co-movements from a large set of commodity price indices and macro-financial activity series. These latent factors, together with observable variables, are integrated into a FAVAR framework to assess their effects on food and beverage inflation. The results indicate that external drivers—captured by common movements in the 50th and 90th percentiles of international food commodity prices and by the GSCPI—play a dominant role in shaping U.S. food and beverage inflation. Climate impacts are more nuanced. Several ACI components, including the variation in the standardized frequency of low temperatures in the United States (DT10USA), the variation in standardized precipitation for the United States (DPRECIUSA), the variation in standardized wind speed for the United States (DWP90USA), the variation in standardized sea level for the United States (DSEAUSA) and the variation in consecutive standardized dry days for the United States (DCDDUSA), it is observed that there is no statistically significant effect on food and beverage inflation do not exhibit a statistically significant effect. High-temperature frequency (DT90USA) has a mild disinflationary influence. Finally, agricultural TFP contributes modestly to reducing food and beverage inflation. Overall, the findings highlight the complex and asymmetric interactions among climate variability, productivity, global disruptions, and food price dynamics within a major food-producing economy.</p>

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The effects of climate variability agricultural total factor productivity and external drivers on food and beverage inflation in the United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月9日

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  • Luis Eduardo Girón Cruz,
  • Lya Paola Sierra-Suárez

摘要

Understanding food and beverage inflation in a high-income country such as the United States is essential, as persistent increases in food prices disproportionately affect low-income households and raise concerns about food security and food system resilience. This study examines the influence of climate variability, agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), and external drivers on food and beverage inflation in the United States from 1992.01 to 2024.05. To capture climate conditions, we employ the components of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) for the United States and Canada. We also incorporate agricultural TFP for the U.S. and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) to account for productivity and global disruptions. Methodologically, we apply the quantile factor model (Chen et al. in Econometrica 89:875–910, 2021) to extract common dynamics and extreme co-movements from a large set of commodity price indices and macro-financial activity series. These latent factors, together with observable variables, are integrated into a FAVAR framework to assess their effects on food and beverage inflation. The results indicate that external drivers—captured by common movements in the 50th and 90th percentiles of international food commodity prices and by the GSCPI—play a dominant role in shaping U.S. food and beverage inflation. Climate impacts are more nuanced. Several ACI components, including the variation in the standardized frequency of low temperatures in the United States (DT10USA), the variation in standardized precipitation for the United States (DPRECIUSA), the variation in standardized wind speed for the United States (DWP90USA), the variation in standardized sea level for the United States (DSEAUSA) and the variation in consecutive standardized dry days for the United States (DCDDUSA), it is observed that there is no statistically significant effect on food and beverage inflation do not exhibit a statistically significant effect. High-temperature frequency (DT90USA) has a mild disinflationary influence. Finally, agricultural TFP contributes modestly to reducing food and beverage inflation. Overall, the findings highlight the complex and asymmetric interactions among climate variability, productivity, global disruptions, and food price dynamics within a major food-producing economy.