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<p>The research aims to assess fish production, consumption, self-sufficiency rates, and deficits in fish food in Saudi Arabia from 2001 to 2022. It will also evaluate local production sufficiency and import duration and analyze economic and environmental factors influencing fish food security over this period. The study employs descriptive statistical analysis to identify trends, patterns, and outliers in the data, using measures such as means, standard deviations, and growth rates. To investigate the relationships between variables, the research applies the Error Correction Model (ECM), a methodology designed to capture both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. The ECM analysis is supported by unit root tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests) to assess stationarity and cointegration tests to confirm stable long-term connections. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation techniques are used to derive model coefficients, while additional diagnostic tests ensure the robustness and reliability of the results. Key findings include annual growth rates of 5.8% for fish output, 4.0% for fish imports, and 4.0% for local consumption. The fish self-sufficiency rate has significantly increased at 6.7% per year. However, the fish food gap, local production sufficiency period, and proportion of imported fish consumed daily are growing at rates of 2.7%, 10.9%, and 1.6%, respectively. The error correction model indicates an error correction coefficient of approximately 0.54, statistically significant at 1%. This coefficient represents the percentage of imbalance in the food security coefficient for fish that can be adjusted yearly, with a correction period of about 1.85 years. Thus, it takes roughly 1 year and 10 months for the food security coefficient to return to equilibrium after deviations occur. Based on these findings, the report recommends three actions: increasing modern fishing vessels, funding fish farming initiatives, and reducing environmental pollution to enhance self-sufficiency and outpace population growth.</p>

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Fish food security: analyzing the economic and environmental variables

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月1日

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  • Alaa Ahmed Kotb,
  • Emad S. Aljohani,
  • Yosef Alamri,
  • Abdullah I. Aldakhil,
  • Fuad Alagsam,
  • Mansour Abdulaziz Alobaid,
  • Mahdi Alsultan

摘要

The research aims to assess fish production, consumption, self-sufficiency rates, and deficits in fish food in Saudi Arabia from 2001 to 2022. It will also evaluate local production sufficiency and import duration and analyze economic and environmental factors influencing fish food security over this period. The study employs descriptive statistical analysis to identify trends, patterns, and outliers in the data, using measures such as means, standard deviations, and growth rates. To investigate the relationships between variables, the research applies the Error Correction Model (ECM), a methodology designed to capture both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. The ECM analysis is supported by unit root tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests) to assess stationarity and cointegration tests to confirm stable long-term connections. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation techniques are used to derive model coefficients, while additional diagnostic tests ensure the robustness and reliability of the results. Key findings include annual growth rates of 5.8% for fish output, 4.0% for fish imports, and 4.0% for local consumption. The fish self-sufficiency rate has significantly increased at 6.7% per year. However, the fish food gap, local production sufficiency period, and proportion of imported fish consumed daily are growing at rates of 2.7%, 10.9%, and 1.6%, respectively. The error correction model indicates an error correction coefficient of approximately 0.54, statistically significant at 1%. This coefficient represents the percentage of imbalance in the food security coefficient for fish that can be adjusted yearly, with a correction period of about 1.85 years. Thus, it takes roughly 1 year and 10 months for the food security coefficient to return to equilibrium after deviations occur. Based on these findings, the report recommends three actions: increasing modern fishing vessels, funding fish farming initiatives, and reducing environmental pollution to enhance self-sufficiency and outpace population growth.