Predicting psychosocial resilience in healthcare workers during COVID-19 using interpretable machine learning
摘要
The mental health morbidities of the health care workers were long-standing and further intensified due to COVID-19. Although the majority of research focuses on burnout and distress, little emphasis has been placed on the proactive prediction of psychological resilience.
MethodsUsing the nationally-representative “How Right Now Mental Health & Coping” dataset (n = 2055, 2021–2022), we trained machine learning models—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine—for resilience level classification based on psychometric indices, emotional symptoms, sociodemographic characteristics, and coping behaviors. The model performance was assessed with ROC-AUC, precision, recall, and F1-score with cross-validation.
ResultsLogistic Regression demonstrated superior discriminative performance (ROC AUC = 0.816, accuracy = 75.6%) compared to Random Forest and SVM. Stress, depression, and anxiety were the most important predictors of low resilience according to feature importance analysis. Coping mechanisms as protective factors: A linear association between the number of coping strategies (social support, hobbies, prayer, meditation) and resilience scores was found, suggesting a cumulative protective effect.
ConclusionsOur work presents an interpretable AI model to predict psychosocial resilience in healthcare workers. These results highlight the importance of deploying easy-to-use collection tools to monitor mental distress over time and reveal actionable factors that are predictive of it, guiding personalized mental health interventions in the early stages for sustainable staffing in highly stressful clinical settings.