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<p>Economic growth has played an important role in Somalia’s post-conflict recovery, but it may also have increased dependence on carbon-intensive sources of energy. This study examines the long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Somalia from 1987 to 2023, using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. To capture possible nonlinear changes in the growth–emissions relationship, the study applies an N-shaped EKC model with a cubic income specification, including GDP, GDP², and GDP³. The model also controls for primary energy consumption, urban population, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment. The stationarity of the variables is tested using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests, while the ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine whether a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The long-run findings support the presence of an N-shaped EKC in Somalia. This suggests that economic growth first increases CO₂ emissions, then reduces them after a certain income level, before causing emissions to rise again at a later stage of development. Primary energy consumption and urbanization have positive and statistically significant effects on emissions, reflecting Somalia’s dependence on fossil-fuel-based energy and the environmental pressures associated with rapid urban expansion. By contrast, gross capital formation and foreign direct investment do not have statistically significant long-run effects on emissions. The short-run results show that CO₂ emissions are persistent over time and that the model adjusts significantly toward long-run equilibrium. The error-correction coefficient (− 0.994757) implies that most short-run deviations are corrected within a year. Overall, the findings suggest that economic growth alone is unlikely to guarantee lasting environmental improvement in Somalia. Stronger environmental regulation, better policy coordination, and more effective enforcement are needed to prevent future emissions rebound. In particular, Somalia should reduce its dependence on diesel-based energy by expanding renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind power, as well as mini-grid and off-grid systems. Sustainable urban planning, clean cooking technologies, green investment incentives, and stronger environmental monitoring are also important for ensuring that Somalia’s economic growth remains consistent with long-term environmental sustainability.</p>

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Economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Somalia testing the N shaped environmental Kuznets curve

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月2日

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  • Ahmed Ali Yusuf,
  • Mohamed Abdirahman Abdihamid,
  • Abdirahman Kasim Mohamed Abdullahi,
  • Abdirahman Mohamed Ali Taanaay,
  • Musadak Abdi Barre

摘要

Economic growth has played an important role in Somalia’s post-conflict recovery, but it may also have increased dependence on carbon-intensive sources of energy. This study examines the long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Somalia from 1987 to 2023, using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. To capture possible nonlinear changes in the growth–emissions relationship, the study applies an N-shaped EKC model with a cubic income specification, including GDP, GDP², and GDP³. The model also controls for primary energy consumption, urban population, gross capital formation, and foreign direct investment. The stationarity of the variables is tested using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests, while the ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine whether a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The long-run findings support the presence of an N-shaped EKC in Somalia. This suggests that economic growth first increases CO₂ emissions, then reduces them after a certain income level, before causing emissions to rise again at a later stage of development. Primary energy consumption and urbanization have positive and statistically significant effects on emissions, reflecting Somalia’s dependence on fossil-fuel-based energy and the environmental pressures associated with rapid urban expansion. By contrast, gross capital formation and foreign direct investment do not have statistically significant long-run effects on emissions. The short-run results show that CO₂ emissions are persistent over time and that the model adjusts significantly toward long-run equilibrium. The error-correction coefficient (− 0.994757) implies that most short-run deviations are corrected within a year. Overall, the findings suggest that economic growth alone is unlikely to guarantee lasting environmental improvement in Somalia. Stronger environmental regulation, better policy coordination, and more effective enforcement are needed to prevent future emissions rebound. In particular, Somalia should reduce its dependence on diesel-based energy by expanding renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind power, as well as mini-grid and off-grid systems. Sustainable urban planning, clean cooking technologies, green investment incentives, and stronger environmental monitoring are also important for ensuring that Somalia’s economic growth remains consistent with long-term environmental sustainability.