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<p>Smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions face increasing climate risks from erratic rainfall, dry spells, and rising temperatures that undermine agricultural productivity and resilience. This study assessed the contribution of Climate Information Services (CIS) to smallholder resilience in Gabiley District, Somaliland, using a mixed-methods design combining climate trend analysis (1993–2023) with a household survey (<i>n</i> = 164), key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Annual rainfall was highly variable (CV = 42.3%), with extreme monthly variability in some months (e.g., February CV = 172.8%), while no significant monotonic trend in annual rainfall was detected (Mann–Kendall <i>p</i> = 0.32). In contrast, minimum temperature increased significantly (<i>p</i> = 0.012) with Sen’s slope ≈ + 0.02&#xa0;°C yr⁻¹. CIS use was reported by 34.15% of households. Logistic regression analysis of CIS use (user vs. non-user), using household socio-demographic and farm characteristics (age, gender, education, farm size, income) and climate risk perception, did not identify statistically significant independent predictors of CIS use (<i>p</i> &gt; 0.10), suggesting that uptake may be driven by contextual and service-delivery factors not fully captured in the survey. Household resilience was summarized using a PCA-derived Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) capturing absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. Mean RCI values differed only slightly between CIS users and non-users, indicating that CIS benefits may be context-specific and influenced by underlying socio-economic and institutional conditions. The findings highlight the need to scale inclusive CIS delivery, strengthen user-centered communication and trust, and embed climate services within national adaptation and risk management strategies in semi-arid Somaliland. Limitations include reliance on gridded climate data in a station-sparse setting and the use of cross-sectional, self-reported survey measures of CIS use and resilience.</p>

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Three decade rainfall and temperature variability and climate information services shaping smallholder resilience in semi arid Somaliland

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Ahmed Hussein Ismail,
  • Mengistu Mengesha Maja,
  • Abdisa Alemu Tolossa

摘要

Smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions face increasing climate risks from erratic rainfall, dry spells, and rising temperatures that undermine agricultural productivity and resilience. This study assessed the contribution of Climate Information Services (CIS) to smallholder resilience in Gabiley District, Somaliland, using a mixed-methods design combining climate trend analysis (1993–2023) with a household survey (n = 164), key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Annual rainfall was highly variable (CV = 42.3%), with extreme monthly variability in some months (e.g., February CV = 172.8%), while no significant monotonic trend in annual rainfall was detected (Mann–Kendall p = 0.32). In contrast, minimum temperature increased significantly (p = 0.012) with Sen’s slope ≈ + 0.02 °C yr⁻¹. CIS use was reported by 34.15% of households. Logistic regression analysis of CIS use (user vs. non-user), using household socio-demographic and farm characteristics (age, gender, education, farm size, income) and climate risk perception, did not identify statistically significant independent predictors of CIS use (p > 0.10), suggesting that uptake may be driven by contextual and service-delivery factors not fully captured in the survey. Household resilience was summarized using a PCA-derived Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) capturing absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. Mean RCI values differed only slightly between CIS users and non-users, indicating that CIS benefits may be context-specific and influenced by underlying socio-economic and institutional conditions. The findings highlight the need to scale inclusive CIS delivery, strengthen user-centered communication and trust, and embed climate services within national adaptation and risk management strategies in semi-arid Somaliland. Limitations include reliance on gridded climate data in a station-sparse setting and the use of cross-sectional, self-reported survey measures of CIS use and resilience.