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<p>Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where many people rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and more frequent extreme weather events have caused substantial fluctuations in crop yields. However, the extent to which socio-economic, institutional and adaptive-capacity factors moderate these climate effects across different agro-ecological settings remains insufficiently understood. Using panel data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), FAOSTAT and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets for 2000–2022, this study applied panel regression and dynamic GMM estimators to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on agricultural outcomes and to assess how resilience mechanisms shape productivity, agricultural trade and food price stability. The results show that the Climate Resilience Productivity Index (CrPI) is positively associated with agricultural trade, with coefficients ranging from 0.23 under fixed effects to 0.87 under pooled OLS and random effects models, while higher CrPI values are associated with lower food prices in the random and fixed effects specifications. Temperature increases generally constrain agricultural outcomes, whereas resilience-enhancing mechanisms help stabilize markets against climate-induced volatility. These findings are consistent with the Land Maxing framework, which shows that closing yield gaps through the integration of indigenous food trees, agroforestry and community-driven value chains can address food security, non-timber forest product (NTFP) provision and rural livelihoods simultaneously. Evidence-based policies targeting yield gap closure and the strengthening of community food systems represent a pathway towards sustainable agricultural resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa.</p>

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Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Christine Dushimiyimana,
  • Jules Ngango,
  • Aristide Maniriho

摘要

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where many people rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and more frequent extreme weather events have caused substantial fluctuations in crop yields. However, the extent to which socio-economic, institutional and adaptive-capacity factors moderate these climate effects across different agro-ecological settings remains insufficiently understood. Using panel data from the World Development Indicators (WDI), FAOSTAT and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets for 2000–2022, this study applied panel regression and dynamic GMM estimators to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on agricultural outcomes and to assess how resilience mechanisms shape productivity, agricultural trade and food price stability. The results show that the Climate Resilience Productivity Index (CrPI) is positively associated with agricultural trade, with coefficients ranging from 0.23 under fixed effects to 0.87 under pooled OLS and random effects models, while higher CrPI values are associated with lower food prices in the random and fixed effects specifications. Temperature increases generally constrain agricultural outcomes, whereas resilience-enhancing mechanisms help stabilize markets against climate-induced volatility. These findings are consistent with the Land Maxing framework, which shows that closing yield gaps through the integration of indigenous food trees, agroforestry and community-driven value chains can address food security, non-timber forest product (NTFP) provision and rural livelihoods simultaneously. Evidence-based policies targeting yield gap closure and the strengthening of community food systems represent a pathway towards sustainable agricultural resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa.