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Background <p>Secondary cities in the Global South are expanding rapidly, yet limited planning capacity leaves them vulnerable to unsustainable growth. Bule Hora, Ethiopia—a strategic hub along the Addis Ababa–Moyale corridor—illustrates this challenge.</p> Methods <p>This study applies a twenty-year geospatial analysis (2003–2023) using Landsat and Sentinel imagery, Random Forest classification, and CA–Markov modeling to quantify land-use transitions and simulate future growth to 2033.</p> Results <p>Built-up land increased by 311% between 2003 and 2023, converting more than 550 hectares of fertile agricultural land. Projections indicate that by 2033, urban cover will reach 35% of the landscape, crossing a critical ecological threshold. Expansion is concentrated along transport corridors, eroding peri-urban buffers essential for food security (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15).</p> Conclusion <p>The findings highlight a governance deficit in managing corridor-driven urbanization. To address this, the study proposes a decision-support framework integrating geospatial intelligence with statutory Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs), offering a practical pathway to balance infrastructure-led growth with ecological resilience. This framework provides a transferable model for sustainable urban governance in secondary towns across the Global South (SDG 11).</p>

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Decoupling urban sprawl from ecological degradation in secondary towns of the global south

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Ajitesh Singh Chandel

摘要

Background

Secondary cities in the Global South are expanding rapidly, yet limited planning capacity leaves them vulnerable to unsustainable growth. Bule Hora, Ethiopia—a strategic hub along the Addis Ababa–Moyale corridor—illustrates this challenge.

Methods

This study applies a twenty-year geospatial analysis (2003–2023) using Landsat and Sentinel imagery, Random Forest classification, and CA–Markov modeling to quantify land-use transitions and simulate future growth to 2033.

Results

Built-up land increased by 311% between 2003 and 2023, converting more than 550 hectares of fertile agricultural land. Projections indicate that by 2033, urban cover will reach 35% of the landscape, crossing a critical ecological threshold. Expansion is concentrated along transport corridors, eroding peri-urban buffers essential for food security (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15).

Conclusion

The findings highlight a governance deficit in managing corridor-driven urbanization. To address this, the study proposes a decision-support framework integrating geospatial intelligence with statutory Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs), offering a practical pathway to balance infrastructure-led growth with ecological resilience. This framework provides a transferable model for sustainable urban governance in secondary towns across the Global South (SDG 11).