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<p>Income inequality is a critical challenge to economic growth and sustainable development. This study examines the dynamics of income inequality and the potential mediating role of unemployment and the moderating role of economic development, incorporating key macroeconomic factors, including inflation, government expenditure, human capital development, trade openness, FDI, control of corruption, and exchange rates. Using panel data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries spanning 1990–2022, the analysis employs Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression (DPTR), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to estimate nonlinear relationships. Results show that inflation significantly affects income inequality, with thresholds shown at 4.29% for high-income countries and 14.36% for upper-middle-income countries. Unemployment mediates this relationship, while economic development moderates it, highlighting the importance of accounting for dynamic and nonlinear effects. These findings provide fresh perspectives on how macroeconomic indicators influence inequality and offer guidance for policymakers in designing fiscal and monetary policies that promote fair resource distribution, price stability, and effective institutional governance across different income groups.</p>

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Impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality in high-income and upper-middle-income countries using a dynamic panel threshold regression model with mediation and moderation analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Lawali Bello Zoramawa,
  • Mohd Tahir Ismail,
  • Mohsen Ayyash

摘要

Income inequality is a critical challenge to economic growth and sustainable development. This study examines the dynamics of income inequality and the potential mediating role of unemployment and the moderating role of economic development, incorporating key macroeconomic factors, including inflation, government expenditure, human capital development, trade openness, FDI, control of corruption, and exchange rates. Using panel data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries spanning 1990–2022, the analysis employs Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression (DPTR), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to estimate nonlinear relationships. Results show that inflation significantly affects income inequality, with thresholds shown at 4.29% for high-income countries and 14.36% for upper-middle-income countries. Unemployment mediates this relationship, while economic development moderates it, highlighting the importance of accounting for dynamic and nonlinear effects. These findings provide fresh perspectives on how macroeconomic indicators influence inequality and offer guidance for policymakers in designing fiscal and monetary policies that promote fair resource distribution, price stability, and effective institutional governance across different income groups.