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<p>Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing severe socio-economic losses and threatening millions of people worldwide. Floods are a major hazard in Somalia, particularly in the Juba and Shabelle River basins, where communities are highly vulnerable due to their reliance on riverine agriculture and settlements in floodplains. Despite the frequent and destructive nature of floods, flood hazard mapping remains limited in Somalia. This study presents one of the first basin-scale geospatial multi-criteria flood susceptibility assessments conducted for the Juba–Shabelle basins. The flood susceptibility map was developed using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), where key environmental and topographic factors were weighted to evaluate flood-prone areas. The analysis utilized Landsat 9 imagery and SRTM data, both at a 30 × 30-m resolution. The model was validated with Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and independent flood observations during the 2023 El Niño event, demonstrating strong predictive accuracy. The resulting flood susceptibility map categorized the basin into five classes: very low (10.79%), low (24.92%), moderate (27.85%), high (20.17%), and very high (16.25%). Overall, 36.42% of the basin (67,751.83 km<sup>2</sup>) falls under high and very high susceptibility, predominantly along riverine floodplains where human exposure is greatest. Validation with Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and independent flood observations during the 2023 El Niño event produced strong predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.841, 0.859). These findings highlight the urgent need for flood-resilient land-use planning, disaster preparedness, and early warning systems in Somalia, where recurrent floods continue to endanger lives, destroy livelihoods, and exacerbate food insecurity.</p>

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Flood susceptibility assessment of Somalia’s Juba–Shabelle basins using GIS, remote sensing, and multi-criteria decision analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月12日

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  • Abdirahman Ismail Dhaqane,
  • Md Abdullah Al Sayeem

摘要

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing severe socio-economic losses and threatening millions of people worldwide. Floods are a major hazard in Somalia, particularly in the Juba and Shabelle River basins, where communities are highly vulnerable due to their reliance on riverine agriculture and settlements in floodplains. Despite the frequent and destructive nature of floods, flood hazard mapping remains limited in Somalia. This study presents one of the first basin-scale geospatial multi-criteria flood susceptibility assessments conducted for the Juba–Shabelle basins. The flood susceptibility map was developed using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), where key environmental and topographic factors were weighted to evaluate flood-prone areas. The analysis utilized Landsat 9 imagery and SRTM data, both at a 30 × 30-m resolution. The model was validated with Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and independent flood observations during the 2023 El Niño event, demonstrating strong predictive accuracy. The resulting flood susceptibility map categorized the basin into five classes: very low (10.79%), low (24.92%), moderate (27.85%), high (20.17%), and very high (16.25%). Overall, 36.42% of the basin (67,751.83 km2) falls under high and very high susceptibility, predominantly along riverine floodplains where human exposure is greatest. Validation with Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and independent flood observations during the 2023 El Niño event produced strong predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.841, 0.859). These findings highlight the urgent need for flood-resilient land-use planning, disaster preparedness, and early warning systems in Somalia, where recurrent floods continue to endanger lives, destroy livelihoods, and exacerbate food insecurity.