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<p>The combined challenges of climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change significantly exacerbate sedimentation and soil erosion in watersheds, thereby threatening water resources and agricultural sustainability. In the Gidabo Watershed, previous studies have primarily assessed soil erosion under historical or current conditions, with limited attention to future projections and no evaluation of the combined impacts of climate and LULC change. This study addresses this gap by providing the first integrated, forward-looking assessment of both the individual and combined effects of CMIP6 climate projections (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and future LULC scenarios on surface runoff (Q<sub>surf</sub>) and sediment yield (SY) using the SWAT+ model. The study employed historical climate data (1995–2014) as a baseline, while future conditions were projected for the 2030s and 2050s. The SWAT+ model showed very good performance in simulating streamflow (NSE = 0.80–0.89) and good performance for sediment yield (NSE = 0.63–0.87) during calibration and validation. Results indicate that climate change alone is projected to increase Q<sub>surf</sub> by 30.91–55.25% and SY by 34.66–75.45%, whereas LULC change alone has a stronger effect, increasing SY by 144.04–153.07%. Moreover, the combined impact represents the most critical scenario, with Q<sub>surf</sub> increasing by 65.65% and SY by 250.18% under LULC 2050 + SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis identified southwestern and northeastern sub-watersheds as priority areas for intervention. Furthermore, evaluation of best management practices (BMPs) demonstrated that integrated structural measures, particularly terraces, cross-slope tillage, and contour farming, are highly effective, reducing sediment yield by 74–93%. These findings provide a novel, integrated assessment framework for understanding future watershed responses to interacting climate and LULC changes and offer practical guidance for targeted, climate-informed, and adaptive watershed management in the Gidabo Watershed.</p>

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Modeling hydrological responses and best management practices for resilient watershed management under CMIP6 climate and land use scenarios in the Gidabo watershed, Ethiopia

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月17日

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  • Degefu Dogiso,
  • Alemayehu Muluneh,
  • Abiot Ketema

摘要

The combined challenges of climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change significantly exacerbate sedimentation and soil erosion in watersheds, thereby threatening water resources and agricultural sustainability. In the Gidabo Watershed, previous studies have primarily assessed soil erosion under historical or current conditions, with limited attention to future projections and no evaluation of the combined impacts of climate and LULC change. This study addresses this gap by providing the first integrated, forward-looking assessment of both the individual and combined effects of CMIP6 climate projections (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and future LULC scenarios on surface runoff (Qsurf) and sediment yield (SY) using the SWAT+ model. The study employed historical climate data (1995–2014) as a baseline, while future conditions were projected for the 2030s and 2050s. The SWAT+ model showed very good performance in simulating streamflow (NSE = 0.80–0.89) and good performance for sediment yield (NSE = 0.63–0.87) during calibration and validation. Results indicate that climate change alone is projected to increase Qsurf by 30.91–55.25% and SY by 34.66–75.45%, whereas LULC change alone has a stronger effect, increasing SY by 144.04–153.07%. Moreover, the combined impact represents the most critical scenario, with Qsurf increasing by 65.65% and SY by 250.18% under LULC 2050 + SSP5-8.5. Spatial analysis identified southwestern and northeastern sub-watersheds as priority areas for intervention. Furthermore, evaluation of best management practices (BMPs) demonstrated that integrated structural measures, particularly terraces, cross-slope tillage, and contour farming, are highly effective, reducing sediment yield by 74–93%. These findings provide a novel, integrated assessment framework for understanding future watershed responses to interacting climate and LULC changes and offer practical guidance for targeted, climate-informed, and adaptive watershed management in the Gidabo Watershed.