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<p>Understanding whether growth in household expenditure translates into sustained improvements in purchasing power in the food dimension is critical for policy in economically fragile regions. Grounded in Engel’s law and expenditure-based purchasing power analysis, this study examines how growth in household expenditure translates into gains in food-related purchasing power in the absence of household-level price data. The objective is to assess whether long-term shifts in household food expenditure behaviour in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir have produced measurable improvements in purchasing capacity in the food dimension between 1999 and 2000 and 2023–24. Using three rounds of NSSO data and a recent primary survey, the study estimates nonlinear Engel elasticities using a quadratic Engel curve analysis and combines them with an Engel-elasticity–based indicator to approximate expenditure-driven changes in purchasing power, in the absence of detailed price information. Robustness checks using alternative elasticity specifications, bootstrap-based inference with confidence intervals, and an alternative final-elasticity purchasing power indicator (FPPG*) confirm the stability and statistical reliability of the results. Results show a steady decline in food Engel elasticities from 0.527 in 1999–2000 to 0.387 in 2023–24; however, the 2023–24 estimate is statistically insignificant and associated with higher uncertainty, reflecting the smaller primary survey sample. The estimated Engel curve coefficients are consistent with expectations and statistically significant in the NSSO survey rounds, with satisfactory goodness of fit. The Engel-elasticity–based purchasing power indicator shows increases in food-related purchasing capacity of ₹469.3, ₹1,311.2, and ₹1,838.0 per household per month across the three periods, implying a cumulative gain of approximately ₹4,276 per household per month at constant 2012 prices. While the approach captures expenditure-driven purchasing power gains in the food dimension, it does not reflect price variation or nutritional quality. The results provide policy-relevant evidence to improve food security programmes, target public distribution support, and monitor purchasing power expansions in structurally constrained regions such as Jammu and Kashmir.</p>

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Sustainable food consumption and household welfare dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir using a quadratic Engel curve analysis

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Gowher Ahmad Malik,
  • J. C. Sharmiladevi,
  • Md Abusaad,
  • Haider Hassan Itoo,
  • Amedee Havyarimana

摘要

Understanding whether growth in household expenditure translates into sustained improvements in purchasing power in the food dimension is critical for policy in economically fragile regions. Grounded in Engel’s law and expenditure-based purchasing power analysis, this study examines how growth in household expenditure translates into gains in food-related purchasing power in the absence of household-level price data. The objective is to assess whether long-term shifts in household food expenditure behaviour in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir have produced measurable improvements in purchasing capacity in the food dimension between 1999 and 2000 and 2023–24. Using three rounds of NSSO data and a recent primary survey, the study estimates nonlinear Engel elasticities using a quadratic Engel curve analysis and combines them with an Engel-elasticity–based indicator to approximate expenditure-driven changes in purchasing power, in the absence of detailed price information. Robustness checks using alternative elasticity specifications, bootstrap-based inference with confidence intervals, and an alternative final-elasticity purchasing power indicator (FPPG*) confirm the stability and statistical reliability of the results. Results show a steady decline in food Engel elasticities from 0.527 in 1999–2000 to 0.387 in 2023–24; however, the 2023–24 estimate is statistically insignificant and associated with higher uncertainty, reflecting the smaller primary survey sample. The estimated Engel curve coefficients are consistent with expectations and statistically significant in the NSSO survey rounds, with satisfactory goodness of fit. The Engel-elasticity–based purchasing power indicator shows increases in food-related purchasing capacity of ₹469.3, ₹1,311.2, and ₹1,838.0 per household per month across the three periods, implying a cumulative gain of approximately ₹4,276 per household per month at constant 2012 prices. While the approach captures expenditure-driven purchasing power gains in the food dimension, it does not reflect price variation or nutritional quality. The results provide policy-relevant evidence to improve food security programmes, target public distribution support, and monitor purchasing power expansions in structurally constrained regions such as Jammu and Kashmir.