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<p>The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation, yet the conditions under which this trajectory materializes in emerging economies remain empirically contested. This study extends the EKC framework by examining how economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and multi-dimensional institutional quality jointly determine CO₂ emission trajectories across ten ASEAN economies over the period 2000–2023—a timeframe that encompasses the region's accelerated industrialization, the post-GFC investment surge, and the structural transitions preceding net-zero commitments. Addressing the dual limitations of endogeneity and long-run heterogeneity that have constrained prior panel studies, the analysis combines System Generalized Method of Moments (S-GMM) with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The empirical results confirm the EKC hypothesis, evidenced by a statistically significant inverted U-shaped income and emissions relationship, while revealing that aggregate FDI inflows increase CO₂ emissions—consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis. Critically, this pollution-augmenting effect is significantly attenuated in countries with strong regulatory quality and rule of law, indicating that institutional strength functions not merely as a moderating variable but as a structural precondition for environmentally beneficial FDI. These findings suggest that ASEAN economies cannot rely on income-driven environmental improvement alone; institution-specific governance reforms are a necessary precondition for FDI to serve as a driver of green growth.</p>

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The role of foreign direct investment and institutional quality in shaping the Environmental Kuznets Curve using System GMM and PMG estimators

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Nguyen Ngoc Trung,
  • Nguyen Thi Hong,
  • Hoang Thi Nhung,
  • Rizwan Akhtar,
  • Dang Trung Tuyen

摘要

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation, yet the conditions under which this trajectory materializes in emerging economies remain empirically contested. This study extends the EKC framework by examining how economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), and multi-dimensional institutional quality jointly determine CO₂ emission trajectories across ten ASEAN economies over the period 2000–2023—a timeframe that encompasses the region's accelerated industrialization, the post-GFC investment surge, and the structural transitions preceding net-zero commitments. Addressing the dual limitations of endogeneity and long-run heterogeneity that have constrained prior panel studies, the analysis combines System Generalized Method of Moments (S-GMM) with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The empirical results confirm the EKC hypothesis, evidenced by a statistically significant inverted U-shaped income and emissions relationship, while revealing that aggregate FDI inflows increase CO₂ emissions—consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis. Critically, this pollution-augmenting effect is significantly attenuated in countries with strong regulatory quality and rule of law, indicating that institutional strength functions not merely as a moderating variable but as a structural precondition for environmentally beneficial FDI. These findings suggest that ASEAN economies cannot rely on income-driven environmental improvement alone; institution-specific governance reforms are a necessary precondition for FDI to serve as a driver of green growth.