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<p>While climate variability is traditionally conceptualized as a stochastic and oscillating stressor, this research provides longitudinal evidence that semi-arid agro-pastoral frontiers are transitioning into regimes of structural climatic entrenchment. Utilizing a 30-year multi-scalar diagnostic framework (1994–2024) in the Horn of Africa, we integrated high-resolution climatological records with geospatial modeling, non-stationary statistical diagnostics, and household-level socio-economic diagnostics (n = 256). Rigorous statistical analysis, including Mann–Kendall trend tests and Pettitt change-point detection, identifies a significant warming trend of + 1.07&#xa0;°C and a cumulative rainfall deficit of 229&#xa0;mm. Crucially, the detection of distinct structural regime shifts in temperature (2006) and precipitation (post-2010) marks a systemic tipping point where transient shocks have evolved into permanent, chronic stress. ARIMA-based stochastic modeling and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) forecast a 40% acceleration in drought frequency by 2030, signaling a significant departure from historical climatic stationarity. Spatially, a Global Moran’s I of 0.82 reveals a profound and statistically significant non-random clustering of vulnerability, categorized here as "Climate Traps," which are defined as geographies where acute biophysical exposure intersects with deep-seated structural marginalization, such as restricted water access (46.5%), to neutralize traditional resilience mechanisms. Association analyses (r =  − 0.703 for agricultural output; r = 0.702 for livestock mortality) empirically validate a phenomenon of compound livelihood decoupling, wherein the historical "mixed-strategy" safety net has been compromised by the synchronized breaching of thermal and pluvial thresholds. This study argues that the failure of traditional coping strategies in these hotspots represents a structural "adaptation gap" that cannot be bridged by incremental aid alone. Ultimately, Bule Hora serves as a diagnostic case study illustrating that without site-specific precision adaptation and structural interventions, the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda remain physically and economically difficult to reach in the world’s rapidly shifting climate frontiers.</p>

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Beyond variability integrated geostatistical and socioeconomic evidence of structural climate stress in global agro pastoral frontiers

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Ajitesh Singh Chandel,
  • Rajesh Kumar

摘要

While climate variability is traditionally conceptualized as a stochastic and oscillating stressor, this research provides longitudinal evidence that semi-arid agro-pastoral frontiers are transitioning into regimes of structural climatic entrenchment. Utilizing a 30-year multi-scalar diagnostic framework (1994–2024) in the Horn of Africa, we integrated high-resolution climatological records with geospatial modeling, non-stationary statistical diagnostics, and household-level socio-economic diagnostics (n = 256). Rigorous statistical analysis, including Mann–Kendall trend tests and Pettitt change-point detection, identifies a significant warming trend of + 1.07 °C and a cumulative rainfall deficit of 229 mm. Crucially, the detection of distinct structural regime shifts in temperature (2006) and precipitation (post-2010) marks a systemic tipping point where transient shocks have evolved into permanent, chronic stress. ARIMA-based stochastic modeling and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) forecast a 40% acceleration in drought frequency by 2030, signaling a significant departure from historical climatic stationarity. Spatially, a Global Moran’s I of 0.82 reveals a profound and statistically significant non-random clustering of vulnerability, categorized here as "Climate Traps," which are defined as geographies where acute biophysical exposure intersects with deep-seated structural marginalization, such as restricted water access (46.5%), to neutralize traditional resilience mechanisms. Association analyses (r =  − 0.703 for agricultural output; r = 0.702 for livestock mortality) empirically validate a phenomenon of compound livelihood decoupling, wherein the historical "mixed-strategy" safety net has been compromised by the synchronized breaching of thermal and pluvial thresholds. This study argues that the failure of traditional coping strategies in these hotspots represents a structural "adaptation gap" that cannot be bridged by incremental aid alone. Ultimately, Bule Hora serves as a diagnostic case study illustrating that without site-specific precision adaptation and structural interventions, the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda remain physically and economically difficult to reach in the world’s rapidly shifting climate frontiers.